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7月进出口增速双双回落 连平:全年能实现较好增长
2017-08-09 07:45:47 中国经济网
中国经济网北京8月9日讯 海关总署8日发布的数据显示,中国7月进出口增速“双双回落”。交通银行首席经济学家连平在接受中国经济网记者采访时表示,进出口增速回落不会明显影响经济运行。预计下半年进出口增速不如上半年,但全年能够实现较好增长,贸易对经济增长将起到明显的支撑作用。
数据显示,7月份,我国进出口总值2.32万亿元,增长12.7%。其中,出口1.32万亿元,增长11.2%;进口1万亿元,增长14.7%;贸易顺差3212亿元,扩大1.4%。受去年同期基数抬高等因素影响,7月份进出口增速环比6月份回落。
连平分析称,7月以美元计价的出口同比增长7.2%,增速比上个月下降4.1个百分点。虽然出口增速回落,但增长势头得以保持。美国二季度以来经济增长较强,欧洲经济好于预期,国际市场需求带动出口增长。劳动密集型产品出口增长较快,传统行业竞争力得以保持。机电产品出口超过出口总值一半以上,其中机械设备增长较快,装备制造业竞争力逐渐提升。受去产能的影响,钢材出口负增长,1-7月增速为-28.7%。一般贸易占比略有提升,但出口结构转型步伐放缓。
以美元计价的进口同比增长11%,比上个月下降6.2个百分点;以人民币计价的进口增长14.7%。进口保持两位数增长,主要进口产品保持增长。虽然近期国际大宗商品和原油价格走势平稳,但同比都有走高。7月高频数据显示主要进口产品价格同比明显上涨,农业产品进口价格涨幅较小,工业初级产品进口价格涨幅较大。剔除价格因素,进口量也有增长,但增长势头有所减弱。部分工业初级产品进口量负增长,表明国内经济增长动能可能走弱。贸易顺差逐月增加,有助于国际收支和汇率稳定。
交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智分析称,7月外贸出口先导指数上升0.4至41.9点,出口经理人指数、出口经理人信心指数、出口企业综合成本指数分别上升至44.9、50.6、23.2点,未来出口增长态势有望保持。但制造业PMI三大订单指数全部下降,新出口订单下滑至46.3%的萎缩区间,预示下半年需求可能走弱。由于大宗商品价格缺乏持续上涨动力,PPI冲高回落,下半年价格对贸易增速的抬升作用减弱。
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