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供给侧改革带来大宗商品牛市行情

2017-08-08 07:09:24   中国经济网

当前,我国大宗商品市场呈现出市场价格同比大幅上涨、行业利润明显增加、企业积极增产的良好态势。这与我国宏观经济企稳向好、供给侧结构性改革持续推进密切相关。但需要注意的是,上游领域大宗商品价格如果上涨过快,可能会给下游行业带来压力——

最近一段时间,大宗商品市场出现了新变化,黑色系大宗商品价格迎来“牛市”行情,特别是能源类大宗商品价格上涨明显。数据显示,7月份以来,黑色系、金属品种、化工品种均出现了不同程度上涨。其中,铁矿石期货价格7月份涨幅达21.3%,TDI部分现货价格涨幅已达41.6%。

有关专家表示,当前我国大宗商品价格集中上涨,与我国宏观经济企稳向好和供给侧结构性改革持续推进密切相关。从未来走势看,大宗商品价格仍有一定上涨空间,工业企业应主动推进结构调整和转型升级,加速提质增效。

多因素助价格上涨

7月份,中国大宗商品价格指数(CCPI)为121.86点,比上月上升3.6点,涨幅为3%。与上年同期相比,有色类、钢铁类、能源类、矿产类分别上涨46.9%、34.5%、26.2%和23.4%。

国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数也显示,7月份制造业购进价格指数为57.9%,比上月上升7.5个百分点;非制造业投入品价格指数为53.1%,环比上升1.9个百分点。

总的来看,我国大宗商品市场呈现出了市场价格同比大幅上涨、行业利润明显增加、企业积极增产的良好态势。

交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智表示,上半年我国GDP增速为6.9%,其中一、二季度的GDP增速均为6.9%,宏观经济运行总体平稳带动了市场对大宗商品需求稳步回升。

同时,随着供给侧结构性改革的深入推进,产需结构进一步优化。例如,上半年全国钢铁去产能已完成年度任务的84.8%;煤炭去产能1.11亿吨,完成年度目标任务量的74%。通过淘汰落后产能,严格控制新增产能,有效地推动了市场供需的改善,也带动了价格回升。

“大宗商品价格上涨与宏观经济企稳向好是密不可分的。”工银国际原材料行业总分析师赵东晨认为,上半年我国GDP增速超出市场预期,工业增加值、固定资产投资增速、进出口贸易、发用电量、铁路货运量等关键经济指标也明显好于去年同期水平。实体经济的发展,带动了对能源、工业金属、化工产品等大宗商品需求增加,进而影响了价格走势。

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