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“直观”德国选战:“老无所依”的富国之困

2017-09-23 06:52:13   新华网

德国大选还有两天。各政党继续激辩热点议题,以争取选民,养老金问题是争论焦点之一。

中国社会科学院中德合作中心副主任杨解朴正在德国观察选情。她认为,养老金问题广受关注,折射出德国老龄化加剧、老年人贫困加剧等社会和经济问题。

据统计,目前德国人年龄中位数为46.3岁。这意味着这个年龄以上和以下的德国人各占一半。在全世界,仅日本以46.5岁的年龄中位数比德国还要“老”。

伴生德国社会老龄化加剧问题而来的,是人口规模的缩减。据统计,到2030年,德国人口将从现在的8200万降到7700万,到2060年减至6500万。届时,每3名德国人中就有1人年龄超过65岁,工作人口与非工作人口比例将严重失衡。

老年人贫困也已成为突出问题。据统计,现在德国55岁以上老年贫困人口从2010年的490万增至570万。贫困老人尤其让人同情,也特别受关注。

杨解朴分析说,德国老年贫困人口增加,有个人原因,比如养老金缴费年限不足、学历有限、工作资质不足等;还有不少是丧偶的家庭主妇,她们的抚恤金不足以维持生计;另外一批是包括难民在内的移民,很多人没有缴纳养老金;此外,靠社会救济的人士能拿到的养老金也很少。

杨解朴认为,养老金问题从社保层面看,有缴纳金额减少导致养老金入不敷出的因素。在政治行为之外,一般认为市场化应对养老金问题的方式有两个:延长退休年龄,加大支付比例。然而,这会触及多方利益,引发争议。

这次德国大选中,各党派针对养老金问题提出种种主张,总理安格拉·默克尔领导的执政联盟却没有新建议,只在一些场合建议延长退休年龄到69岁或70岁。这随即遭到反对党批评。社民党、绿党和左翼党等政党则提出增加养老金比例,要求政府划定最低养老金标准,以防止老年贫困。

“无论如何,养老金改革已成为各政党争取选民的重要话题,这关系到老年人,也关系到工作人群的未来。”杨解朴说。不过,养老金、老龄化问题涉及社会发展诸多深层原因,包括全球化、科技发展取代人工、财富结构固化和中产阶级缩水等,不仅是德国这样的发达国家,也是世界多国普遍面临的问题,“从这点说,各大政党把养老金作为重要话题,倒不是有什么‘高招’,更多是为了选票”。(夏文辉)(新华社专特稿)

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