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【老外谈】希腊专家:金砖国家影响力日益增强 将促进全球经济发展

2017-09-02 20:00:51   光明网

金砖国家领导人第九次会晤将于2017年9月3日至5日在位于中国东南的福建省厦门市举行。本次会议将使中国再次成为国际关注的焦点,中国也将借此向世人展示自己成功主办世界级盛会的能力。在过去的一年里,中国曾于去年九月和今年五月主办二十国集团领导人杭州峰会和“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛,这些活动都是成功的案例。

即将举行的金砖国家领导人会晤就其时间节点而言对世界经济意义重大。尽管世界经济走势正逐步趋于平稳,复苏迹象也日趋明显,但是各国仍需继续努力,巩固现有成果,防止经济倒退。从这层意义上讲,由发展中国家组成的经济体作用正在日趋凸显。国际货币基金组织日前在一份报告中指出,就经济增长预期而言,中国、印度等国远高于3.5%的世界平均水平,其中,中国经济增速预期为6.7%,印度经济增速为7.2%。

由此可见,金砖国家之间加强协调可以产生诸多积极效应。下列数据就足以说明问题:金砖五国经济总量在全球中的比重已由十年前的12%增长到2016年的23%。金砖国家在全球贸易总量中的比重也在逐年攀升,从2007年至2016年,这一比重已由11%上升至16%。此外,在过去十年金砖五国海外投资总量在全球中的比重也由7%上升至12%。

金砖国家新开发银行的成立使投资领域的前景更加光明。去年这一金融机构向涉及绿色能源及基础设施等领域的七个项目发放贷款总额达到15亿美元。在2017年和2018年,金砖国家新开发银行将为23个项目发放贷款,贷款总额高达60亿美元。金砖国家新开发银行行长卡马特表示,上述项目中,有五个来自中国的项目得到17亿美元的贷款支持,另外有六个项目来自印度,七个项目来自巴西,二个项目来自俄罗斯,三个项目来自南非。

本次金砖国家领导人会晤将发出反对保护主义的强烈呼声。虽然美国总统特朗普并不推崇自由贸易,但是这五个日益壮大的新兴经济体有能力在厦门向世人展示一种全球化背景下开放包容的合作模式。这种合作也将对全球治理产生重大影响,金砖国家在全球治理中将获得与其经济地位相称的更大话语权。

此外,随着金砖合作机制不断深化,人们已开始探讨金砖扩容的问题。这个被称为“金砖+”的概念也不再遥不可及。墨西哥、巴基斯坦及斯里兰卡都有可能加入这一合作机制。除了“金砖+”这一概念,区域一体化不断扩大也不可忽视。南方共同市场及南部非洲关税同盟已受邀参加金砖国家工作组的活动。今后更多组织将会受邀参加相关活动,尽管在一体化进程中可能持有不同意见,但双赢精神将是彼此共同秉承的原则。

中国在当前及未来倡议中发挥的作用至关重要。从这层意义上说,“一带一路”倡议的实施就极具实质意义。自2013年起,“一带一路”倡议就成为世界关注的焦点之一,因为它倡导通过构建庞大的基础设施体系从而促进全球的互联互通。

2017是金砖合作第二个“黄金十年”的开局之年,中国作为金砖国家轮值主席国举办领导人年度会晤极具象征意义。正如中国外交部长王毅所言,中国政府将肩负起促进世界稳定繁荣及多边主义健康发展的责任。上述目标与不断壮大发展的金砖国家息息相关。此外,本次金砖国家领导人会晤举办城市厦门及其所在省份福建省既是600年前海上丝绸之路的起点,也是现代贸易促进世界互联互通的一个缩影。(乔治佐戈普鲁斯 欧洲一体化国际研究中心高级研究员)

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