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默克尔赢面大 德国大选难飞“黑天鹅”

2017-08-20 16:56:10   新华网

新华社柏林8月19日电(国际观察)默克尔赢面大 德国大选难飞“黑天鹅”

新华社记者王勍

德国将于9月24日举行联邦议会选举。一张德国总理默克尔做鬼脸的搞怪图片正在德国的社交网络上疯传。“选战就是所有政党都花钱打广告,但最后赢的总是默克尔。”图片上的这段文字生动反映当前选情。

分析人士指出,当前德国经济总体表现良好,难民涌入造成的危机逐渐消退,缺乏有力竞争对手的默克尔有望实现第三次连任,成为德国政坛“常青树”。

成功连任几无悬念

基督教民主联盟(基民盟)主席默克尔自2005年11月成为德国首任女总理以来,已于2009年和2013年两次连任。倘若默克尔今秋第三次连任,那么她将有望在4年后追平德国前总理科尔,成为联邦德国历史上第二位连续执政16年的总理。

据德国若干权威民调机构8月中旬发布的最新数据,默克尔领导的联盟党(由基民盟和基社盟组成)的支持率在37%到40%之间,社民党的支持率在22%到25%之间,其他4个主要政党的支持率均不超过10%。这让一个多月后的大选几无悬念。

舆论普遍认为,默克尔之所以获得较高支持率,主要是因为在经济和难民两大问题上处理得当。单从统计数据看,德国经济在默克尔执政期间蒸蒸日上,并未明显受到欧债危机和难民危机拖累。

在默克尔2005年上台后,其前任施罗德力推的劳动力市场改革和社会福利改革效果逐渐显现,德国经济持续增长,失业人数大幅下降。2008年国际金融危机爆发后,特别是在欧债危机愈演愈烈之际,以制造业为支柱的德国经济在欧盟一枝独秀的趋势越发明显。从2005年到2017年,德国失业率从11.7%降至5.9%的历史低点。2016年德国财政盈余高达237亿欧元,为1990年两德统一以来的最高水平。

平稳渡过难民危机

实际上,默克尔目前这种“坐等当选”的局面在一年前还难以想象。在德国《星期日图片报》于去年8月发布的民调中,50%的受访者反对默克尔连任,支持者仅占42%。而去年11月默克尔宣布竞选连任时,几乎所有分析人士都认为这将是她执政以来最艰难的选战。

2015年和2016年,德国相继接收难民110万人和32万人。默克尔的难民政策在国内外均招致了两极化的评价。

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