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奥地利业界预计欧元对美元汇率将明显回落

2017-08-13 21:06:49   新华网

新华社维也纳8月13日电(记者刘向)奥地利私人银行——古特曼银行近日预计,未来几个月,欧元对美元汇率将告别强势,回落到1比1.10至1.12的水平。

奥地利《信使报》报道,古特曼银行首席投资经理人弗里德里希·施特拉塞尔认为欧元告别强势理由是,欧洲央行提高欧元区主导利率的时间要远远晚于市场预计。他估计,欧洲央行最早两年后摆脱零利率。而美联储今年则将再次加息,明年还要加息2到3次。

自去年11月特朗普当选美国总统后,欧元对美元汇率曾下滑到1比1.05以下,后来欧元持续走强,近期已上升到1比1.18左右。

欧洲央行于7月20日召开例行货币政策会议,决定维持现行的超宽松货币政策不变。从欧洲央行行长德拉吉当天在会后释放的信号看,欧洲央行很可能在9月份的货币政策会议上为渐进式退出量化宽松(QE)铺路,明确退出路径和节奏。目前,市场预期欧洲央行将于2018年开始逐渐退出QE,并于2019年年底启动加息。

欧元区零利率迄今已经持续了17个月,而隔夜存款负利率已经持续了37个月。

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