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美国退出不会逆转《巴黎协定》

2017-06-04 16:24:59   文汇报


当地时间6月1日,美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布,“美国将停止落实不具有约束力的《巴黎协定》”,包括停止执行国家自主贡献和绿色气候基金。特朗普同时表示,他仍高度关注环境问题,但“无法支持一项惩罚美国的协定”,美国将寻求磋商,重新商定新的条款。

而联合国气候变化框架公约秘书处则发表声明回应称,《巴黎协定》是由194个国家签署并经147个国家批准的历史性条约,不能根据单方面的要求进行重新谈判。

自去年参加总统竞选以来,特朗普一直秉持气候变化怀疑论,使美国在《巴黎协定》的去留中摇摆不定。而今美国正式宣布退出,与叙利亚和尼加拉瓜共同成为世界上仅有的3个未参与巴黎气候协定的国家。特朗普称,《巴黎协定》将美国的财富分配到其他国家,导致优质工作岗位流失,损害了美国的经济发展。削弱了美国的竞争力是他决定退出的主要原因。

美国真的去意已决?

特朗普在白宫的演讲中并未就退出《巴黎协定》的具体程序作出说明。而美国作为《联合国气候变化框架公约》成员国,想要退出该公约下的《巴黎协定》可能有以下三种方式:一是直接退出。按照《巴黎协定》第二十八条规定,自协定生效起三年后缔约方可申请退出,自申请之日起一年期满时退出生效———即美国最快于2020年正式退出《巴黎协定》,而届时对于该问题的态度将很大程度上影响下一届美国总统大选;二是彻底退出《联合国气候变化框架公约》,仅需一年时间,这是美国退出《巴黎协定》的最快方式,但前提是取得美国国会同意;三是特朗普政府宣布《巴黎协定》是需要参议院批准的法律条约,但参议院无法投票通过,从而使《巴黎协定》不具备实际约束力。

以目前情况看,特朗普政府并不倾向于直接退出《联合国气候变化框架公约》,因为退出该公约意味着美国将失去该公约下所有谈判和会议的发言权,如此美国不仅放弃了全球气候治理的领导者地位,更失去了参与全球气候多边治理的机会,而这并非特朗普的真实用意。正如特朗普在演讲中提到的,美国将开始协商新的条款,甚至缔结新的气候协定,但前提是必须对美国公平。此外,在正式宣布退出之前,美国国务卿蒂勒森,特朗普女儿伊万卡、女婿库什纳均主张美国留在《巴黎协定》,以保全美国在全球的领袖地位,最好在不退出的情况下修改减排目标。可见,美国并非执意退出《巴黎协定》,而是需要一份既能维护其领导力又倾向美国利益的气候协定。

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