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拦截导弹成功了,美国自信莫爆棚

2017-06-01 14:17:07   环球时报

美国五角大楼星期二表示,美军当天下午成功进行了拦截洲际弹道导弹试验,一枚升级后的拦截火箭从加利福尼亚海岸发射后,在太平洋上空击中了一枚从马绍尔群岛发射的模拟洲际弹道导弹。五角大楼导弹防御局海军中将吉姆·叙林将这次拦截称为“一项惊人成就”。

这次拦截试验被五角大楼公开宣布为“针对朝鲜的导弹”。此外,这次试验的靶弹首次使用了模拟洲际弹道导弹。而且据说发射靶弹的很多情况拦截方并不知道,后者通过X波段雷达,也就是“萨德”系统独立对靶弹实施捕捉、跟踪和摧毁。这次试验更接近于实战。

朝鲜在5月份至少做了3次平壤宣称“成功的”导弹发射,美军此举像是针锋相对的回应,而且它帮助美国巩固了对朝威慑。

然而事情远非这么简单。首先是,美方虽把朝鲜宣布为拦截试验的针对目标,但反导技术是通用的,美方反导试验搞多了,对中俄核威慑也会造成侵蚀。美国每年耗资数十亿美元用于反导研究,华盛顿一直幻想将美国变成一个被反导系统“罩起来”、任何导弹都飞不进去的国家。

然而导弹系统和反导系统正如矛与盾的关系,两者曾交替发展,结果整个历史中矛没有做到所向披靡,盾也未成为百器之王。

反导系统不会成为美国的“安全罩”,在美朝之间,平壤不会因为美国已经提前做了拦截弹道导弹试验,它就放弃弹道导弹计划,从此接受美国的处置。对中俄来说,发展导弹和反导的能力都是充裕的,美国拦截了一枚洲际弹道导弹,只会促中俄升级洲际弹道导弹的突防能力,确保自己导弹的突防技术继续跑赢美国的反导技术。

美国一直试图获得超级、绝对的安全,把它与中俄的军事装备差距拉大到近代史上欧洲热兵器与东亚冷兵器之间的悬殊水平。这样的安全观误导了美国人,他们因此失去了正常的安全感,他们的安全目标像“永生”一样遥不可及。

解决朝核问题的出路决非搞反导,美国的反导安排无助于动摇朝鲜的核导计划,只会让华盛顿和首尔更加患得患失,搞不清楚究竟该朝反导下力气,还是应在促朝鲜弃核上做足功课。

中国正在崛起为拥有顶级综合力量的国家,对我们来说,消化掉美国反导体系的迄今成就并不是件困难的事情。增加洲际弹道导弹数量,发展三位一体的核攻击能力,把更先进的突防技术用于洲际弹道导弹上,今天的中国这些都能做到。

美国是当今世界军事最强大的国家,这一点各国都接受了,现在也没有哪个国家试图改变这一格局。然而美国强大到可以对任何国家发动军事打击,同时确保自己不承受被报复的痛苦,这不符合整个世界的利益。人类的自然法则会阻止那一幕出现。

战略反导系统的地缘政治意义远远大于其实际军事意义,它将被用来填充美国的威慑力,巩固围绕它的战略凝聚力。朝鲜不是这场战略游戏的真正主角之一,中俄则应当增加对战略导弹先进技术的展示,平衡美国反导宣传所产生的全球心理效果。

中俄不应因蔑视美国反导的初级成绩而长期不作声。要知道,美国的一次次“成功反导试验”在逐渐影响许多人对大国博弈态势的认识和感受,它们会变成美国强硬派的自信,进而变成选票,危害中俄等希望世界和平稳定国家的利益。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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