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媒体:日本巡航南海,中国有多招反制

2016-09-18 04:30:28   环球时报

图为日本防卫相稻田朋美

原标题:社评:中国可多招反制来南海巡航的日本

正在美国访问的日本防卫相稻田朋美15日宣布,日本自卫队将与美军联合在南中国海巡航。她说日本将通过与美国海军联合巡逻、与区域国家的海军举行双边以及多边军事演习、对一些国家提供协助等加强日本在南中国海的参与。这是日本的一个新姿态。

美国一直在邀请日、澳等南海域外国家和菲律宾等区域内国家在南海搞联合巡航,澳、菲等国表态谨慎、含混,东京之前也一直表示没有参加南海联合巡航的计划。

中国中央军委联合参谋部副参谋长孙建国今年6月在香格里拉对话会上表示,若日美在南海开展所谓“联合巡航”或其它军事行动,中方不会坐视不理。稻田朋美在美国的表态可以被认为是在冲击中国的底线。在15日与美国防长卡特举行的联合记者会上,多名记者连续追问日本的这一决定,稻田朋美不愿意多做解释,这表明她本人和世界舆论都知道,日本的这一姿态对南海局势极具刺激性。

在东京下决心派军舰来南海参加联合巡航之后,中日这段时间缓和双边关系的努力看来大部分都要被冲销了。另外稍稍有些平静的南海局势会因为美日这两个域外国家的“联合巡航”而掀起更大波澜,中国除了采取强有力的反制措施,大概别无他择。

一旦美日在南海的联合巡航正式开始,等于对中国实施21世纪的“新炮舰政策”。这种情况下,中国应毫不犹豫地对已经建成的南沙岛礁进行军事化部署,增强与美日军舰对峙、周旋的能力。中国还应把这样的反应提前通知东盟国家,让国际社会更加清楚南海局势升级的原委。

如果美日联合巡航频密,或有更多国家参与,严重干扰南海地区的正常秩序,中国就应把宣布建立南海防空识别区作为进一步选项。一旦形成这样的局面,中国以多个军事化岛礁和防空识别区的整个体系对抗美日军舰,长远看我们并不会在战略上丢分。

进入南海的日本军舰应当成为中国对抗的主要目标。中国军机可以采取低空掠过日本军舰等临界动作,增加对日方的压力。

除了在南海采取上述行动,中国应强化在钓鱼岛方向的对日施压,增加公务船在钓鱼岛执法的频次。东京现在是最热衷炒热南海问题的一方,它这方面的积极性不仅超过了南海区域内国家,甚至比美国还怕南海问题冷下来。它这样做的重要动机之一,是想用南海问题牵制中国,使自己在东海上更加主动。在这一点上,北京绝不能遂它的愿。

中日摩擦本来局限在历史问题和钓鱼岛问题上,日本贸然开辟了中日之间的“南海战线”,使得中日之间的“世仇”进一步加深。对中国社会来说日本不是美国,中国人对日本挑衅的容忍度很低,要求政府强硬回击的态度更加强烈。日本军舰进入南海很可能将中日关系带入新一轮的恶化。中国社会针对日本的一些历史记忆恐怕会再一次激活,反日情绪的高涨不可避免。这种情况下中国社会将面临做好内部情绪管控的老问题,我们需要既坚决回击日本,又做到出手稳健,不掉入与日本置气的冲动游戏。

中日冲突不是孤立的,日本与美国等互为杠杆,形成一盘复杂的战略大棋。具体如何对付日本,必须由高度专业的外交和军事团队主导,不能由民间的舆论力量说了算。

中日斗争是一场持久战,我们的行动越有条不紊就越有后劲。中国经济总量已经两倍于日本,我们又是核大国,今天的日本实为中美战略博弈的配角,可捣乱但绝奈何不了中国。中国人需对日本的拙劣表现还以颜色,但千万不可被它气着。原因很简单:它不配。

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