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全球谷物丰收将推高粮食库存

2017-09-12 06:47:29   新华网

本报纽约电记者朱旌报道:根据联合国粮农组织发布的最新一期《谷物供求简报》,2018年全球谷物期末库存量预计将达到创纪录水平。粮农组织也将全球谷物产量预测数上调至26.11亿吨,创历史新高。

粮农组织表示,全球小麦和粗粮价格下挫导致本年度8月份粮农组织食品价格指数下调了1.3%,主要原因是谷物丰收前景推高了对粮食库存增长的预期。

粮农组织指出,由于俄罗斯谷物生产前景好转,以及2017年全球稻米产量预计将创历史新高,粮农组织食品价格指数在连续3个月上涨之后,于8月份出现小幅下滑。但这一跟踪国际市场五大食品类商品价格的贸易加权指数仍保持在高于上一年度数值6%的水平。

这份《谷物供求简报》说,与全球谷物情况一样,粮农组织肉类价格指数本月下挫1.2%,糖价指数降幅为1.7%,主要原因是巴西、泰国和印度等生产国的甘蔗收成前景良好。

与此同时,由于棕榈油、大豆油、葵花籽油和向日葵油的报价提高,粮农组织植物油价格指数上调2.5%。此外,受欧洲和北美地区乳脂需求增加,粮农组织乳品价格指数较7月份上调了1.4%。

粮农组织的最新预测称,全球粮食利用量,特别是小麦和稻米的利用量将增加,动物饲料的粗粮利用量预计将达到历史新高。即使如此,世界谷物库存预计仍将达到7.19亿吨的创纪录水平,较本季度初已经处在高位的库存量增长2%。预计俄罗斯联邦小麦库存量和巴西玉米库存量将大幅增加。

粮农组织表示,世界谷物贸易量预计将增加2%以上,达到4.03亿吨,创下新的纪录。鉴于中国、巴西、欧盟、伊朗和墨西哥的进口需求更加旺盛,粮农组织的最新预测数据较先前预期增加了800万吨。

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