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机构资产配置月报:高配A股港股和货基

2017-09-05 16:11:50   央广网

央广网上海9月5日消息(记者吴善阳 通讯员温洁)挖财研究院发布资产配置月报,分析了当下宏观经济政策,并对股票、债券、黄金等资产的配置提出建议。该月报认为,供给侧改革推动经济数据向好,从而推动近期股市震荡上行,同时去杠杆政策的延续收紧流动性,因此建议,积极配置货币基金、港股和A股资产,并适当配置债券基金和黄金资产。

股市走强 高配A股港股和货基

国内供给侧改革对市场有正向推进,8月PMI数据继续维持高位运行,三季度经济数据及预期偏好推动近期股市震荡上行。挖财研究院认为,政府去杠杆意图强烈,相关细则四季度仍可能对市场产生压力。

市场行情层面,今年大盘屡次冲击3300,终于在8月25日站上3300点。截止8月31日,上证指数月涨幅达2.68%,中小板指涨幅为3.85%,创业板大涨6.51%。

“大盘和中小板、创业板分化态势会延续,大金融、消费等大盘蓝筹依然是推动市场上涨的主力。”挖财研究院表示。

今年港股的累计涨幅已超过25%,8月后期金融股业绩超预期引领市场热点推动港股整体涨幅4.13%,同时两市南下资金净流入近75亿人民币,与7月水平相当。港股通增持最多的行业是资讯科技,工业和银行。“低估值、全球最便宜市场、外汇政策趋紧等多重利多驱动港股上涨。”挖财研究院认为港股仍有较强配置价值。

而在去杠杆预期下,流动性继续趋紧,货币市场机会确定,货币基金的高收益将维持较长时间。

内外不确定仍存 标配利率债和黄金

三季度初,缴税及逆回购到期使得资金出现结构性紧张。为缓解短期紧张,央行主动调控,8月央行累计净回笼4200亿元。

债市五月大调整之后,债牛行情并未出现,经济基本面向好动力仍在,但股市及商品行情回升制约了债市上行动力。市场担忧及监管升级等不确定因素促使债市收益率上行,10年期国债8月24日一度冲击3.69%,一度攀升至前期高点。

“央行的维稳意图与前期一致,因此国债收益率料不会高于前期高位。”挖财研究院认为,避免因去杠杆而引发新风险的基调未变,随着不确定事件落地和监管铺开,债市情绪面企稳,利率债应维持配置。

8月底金价突破1300美元/盎司,为去年10月以来最高值。黄金行情源自市场避险情绪升温,特朗普政权变动、美朝矛盾升级以及美欧央行未对货币政策予以明确指引都引发了市场情绪,黄金再获支撑。挖财研究院认为,黄金在资产配置中依然有不可替代的避险功能,全球不稳定因素仍存,应标配黄金。

海外市场方面,欧洲经济持续复苏拉动全球经济增长,欧元区将继续偏宽松的货币政策。全球央行会议美联储表态温和,加息预期弱化,欧美此次未对货币政策作出展望,引发各国货币波动,人民币欧元继续大涨,美元继续承压。

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