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人民币汇率创年内新高 航空、房地产等行业受益

2017-08-11 15:16:41   央广网

8月10日,人民币兑美元中间价上调305点,破6.70关口,报6.6770,为2016年9月29日来最高。在岸人民币兑美元开盘上涨145点至6.66。今年以来,人民币汇率累计上升3000个基点。

人民币汇率波动直接影响上市公司的财务费用,进而对净利润产生影响。其中,航空、能源、钢铁、矿产等行业以及海外业务较多的公司受汇率波动影响较大。人民币升值时,拥有大量外币货币性资产权益或产品大量出口的加工型企业通常会产生汇兑损失。而飞机、航空燃油等进口物品的采购成本将大幅减少,同时以美元计价的外债将减少。

利好航空房地产行业

对于航空运输行业,航油成本及飞机租赁成本等支出均以美元计价,前述支出占航空公司成本的4成以上。因此,人民币升值意味着航空公司财务成本和原材料成本将大幅降低。元大证券指出,航空运输板块由于拥有较高美元借款占比,人民币升值将减少利息支出造成的汇兑损失;南方航空、东方航空、中国国航在2016年均遭受超30亿元汇兑损失;若人民币贬值1%,当期净利润对于汇率变动敏感幅度分别为18.3%、16.1%、11.8%。

近年来,三大航企美元负债占比有所降低,但人民币持续升值,预计仍将给大型航空公司带来不菲的汇兑收益。

根据国金证券研报,一季度航空公司业绩普遍大幅下滑,二季度受航空市场上行以及汇兑收益利好,航空公司业绩预计成倍增长。对于三季度,随着航空旺季到来,提价策略将提升三大航企主营收入。虽然油价同比小幅增长,部分抵消主营收入增长,但暑运旺季将带来业绩稳步提升。

房地产则间接受益。去年三季度以来,受房地产融资环境收紧影响,多家房企重拾海外发债募资方式。彭博数据显示,截至2017年7月底,2017年房企海外发债规模已突破2000亿元人民币,已超去年全年发行规模一倍以上。6月发行规模更是出现井喷,近期汇率走势有利于海外发债的房企降低财务成本。分析人士预计,除非监管层对房企海外发债有所限制,预计后续仍有大量企业尝试海外发债。

 对部分行业影响复杂

人民币汇率变动对一些行业公司影响较为复杂,人民币汇率的变动,对原材料成本以及制成品出口产生不同影响。在目前供给侧改革的背景下,造纸、有色、钢铁等行业供求关系由过剩转变为紧平衡,国内市场利润水平更高,企业对出口热情不高。因此,人民币兑美元升值对行业的影响整体为正面。

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