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中国外汇储备六连升说明了什么? 供给侧改革渐显效

2017-08-09 04:37:15   央广网

山西太原,银行工作人员正在清点货币。 张云 摄

日前,中国人民银行公布的最新数据显示,截至2017年7月末,中国外汇储备规模30807亿美元,较6月末上升239亿美元,外汇储备实现了“六连升”。分析人士指出,“外储连升”从表面上看与美元走弱等汇率折算因素有关,但背后则折射出了中国经济转型升级势头日益向好、国内民众和企业购汇更趋理性、海外投资者积极布局中国市场等基本面上的重要积极变化。可以预见的是,未来尽管外汇储备本身仍可能上下波动,但国际收支结构有望进一步优化,跨境资金流动总体企稳的基础会更加坚实。

供给侧改革渐显效

2017年上半年,中国民间投资同比加快4.4个百分点,高技术产业增长13.1%,全面完成取缔“地条钢”任务,进出口总额同比增长19.6%……在不少分析人士眼中,“外储连升”首先折射出的是供给侧结构性改革之下中国经济出现的一系列积极变化。

在中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲看来,整个上半年经济状态超乎预期,稳定性利好性比较突出,对外汇储备增量带来了较大积极影响,大家结汇意愿增强,从而给外汇储备稳中有升注入了积极因素。中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为,今年以来随着中国宏观经济企稳回升以及人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善,人民币兑美元贬值预期下降,跨境资本流动形势回稳向好,银行结售汇逆差状况趋于改善,推动外储持续回升。温彬预计,人民币兑美元汇率将保持稳定,外汇储备仍将小幅增加。

“今年以来,虽然中国在跨境资本流动环节完善了监管,抑制了投机性资本快进快出,但是外汇储备并不可能因为监管这一个因素就出现连续回升。事实上,在供给侧改革的背景下,企业产品升级、出口竞争力提升等基本面变化,为外储回升提供了强劲的经济支撑。”中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部副研究员张焕波在接受本报记者采访时说。

资本进出更趋理性

“今年以来,我国经济延续了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的有利因素进一步增多。国际金融市场相对稳定,跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求基本平衡,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。受此提振,居民和企业的购汇行为更加趋于理性。”国家外汇管理局有关负责人对于“外储连升”的评价,折射出了另一个重要变化:国内市场主体结售汇心态理性、不再盲目。

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