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中国经济持续增长是世界之福

2017-08-07 16:06:53   中国青年网

中国经济能否实现强劲、可持续、平衡和包容增长,这不仅是中国的问题,也是关乎世界经济的问题。

“推进二十国集团实现强劲、可持续、平衡和包容增长的共同目标,仍是我们的最重要任务。”这是二十国集团领导人在德国汉堡提出的抱负。就中国而言,其经济在过去近40年一直保持强劲增长。即便中国经济进入新常态后,表现依然不俗。今年上半年,中国经济实现了6.9%的增长,超出了大多数观察家的预期。

中国的经济增长能否持续?一旦政府的刺激手段耗尽、企业和地方债务问题集中爆发,是否会出现“硬着陆”?过去几十年中,伴随中国经济的高速增长,国际上常有这种多虑的声音。在我看来,这些质疑和担忧都夸大了事实。至少到目前为止,中国政府在没有用尽调控手段的情况下,已经设法放缓了信贷扩张。

目前,中国经济正处在调速换挡期,依旧保持着中高速增长。事实上,对任何一个经济体来说,维持长期的高速增长都是不现实的,也是不可取的。增长质量比增长速度更重要。中国当前需要着重提高全要素生产率,即更有效地利用劳动力和人力资本。

长期的增长必须靠生产力的提高来实现,而这取决于创新,即新产品、新流程、新技术等。值得欣慰的是,中国在全球价值链中的地位正在逐渐攀升。影响中国能否继续提高生产力的一个重要因素是其吸收和采用新技术的能力。中国的信息技术产业目前发展态势非常良好,高技术制造业和装备制造业上半年同比分别增长13.1%和11.5%,并且在股市估值高,反映出市场对未来增长的预期。毫无疑问,中国高技术制造业的崛起将对全球产生重大影响,而且它对中国产业结构转型升级的积极影响已经体现出来。

如何实现资源和环境可持续发展就是一个重大课题。在治理空气污染、保护耕地、应对水污染方面,任务颇为艰巨。中国领导人已经严肃承诺,将认真应对气候变化和环境恶化的问题。此外,虽然消费对经济增长的贡献率在增长,但投资所占的比例仍然较高。在如何进一步释放居民的消费潜力上,中国政府还有不少工作要做。

在中国经济前进的每一步,我们都能够看到中国政府科学有效地发挥引导作用。近期在北京举行了全国金融工作会议,会议强调金融必须服务实体经济,释放出一系列政策信号,表明中国政府正视金融业存在的问题,并着力解决。

实现强劲、可持续、平衡和包容增长,这是世界各国的共同目标。我们看到,中国成功增加了民众接受高等教育的机会,扩大了社会保障的覆盖面,为人人享有机会平等创造了条件。中国经济能否实现强劲、可持续、平衡和包容增长,这不仅是中国的问题,也是关乎世界经济的问题。因为,中国的经济体量是如此之大,中国市场、中国投资对于许多国家而言都变得日益重要。我们期待着中国在世界经济增长以及全球治理领域发挥更大的作用。

(作者为英国伦敦政治经济学院全球事务研究所主任埃里克·伯格洛夫)

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