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外媒:越南在南海被孤立 无法信任美国 与菲关系恶化

2017-08-21 01:48:47   参考消息

参考消息网8月21日报道美国《纽约时报》网站8月4日报道称,越南似乎已经从与中国的一个高风险对峙中撤出,中止了它先前在南海批准的一个天然气钻探项目,因为该项目惹恼了中国。

分析师们说,西班牙能源企业雷普索尔公司的一家子公司于今年6月开始在越南南部海岸进行这一钻探活动。钻探地点位于越南200海里专属经济区边缘地带,这一地点受到中国的抗议。

资料图:越南试射岸基反舰导弹。

雷普索尔公司2日对路透社证实,该钻探项目已经停止。分析师们说,当特朗普政府正忙于应对国内动荡之际,这似乎是中国取得的又一战略胜利。

在回答有关雷普索尔项目和越南在南海的战略优先考虑等问题时,越南

外交部

女发言人黎氏秋恒说,越南支持通过和平手段和根据国际法解决所有海上争端。

黎氏秋恒说:“越南呼吁有关各方尊重越南的利益和法律权利,为东海(越南对南海的称呼)的和平与合作做出积极的和可行的贡献。”雷普索尔公司未对评论请求作出回应。

与菲律宾和日本不同,越南不是与美国签署了协议的盟友,这意味着在越南遭到袭击时,美国没有法律义务对其进行保护。华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心东南亚项目研究员格雷戈里·波林说,越南发现自己在南海政策上受到孤立,部分原因是由于它不确信当这一地区的冲突升级之时,特朗普政府将如何反应。

波林说,“我认为可以说越南人仍然不能完全相信”特朗普政府同奥巴马政府一样重视南海问题。

菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特于2016年6月就职后加强了与中国的关系,自那以后,越南的战略孤立进一步加剧。菲律宾是另一个在南海拥有主权要求的主要国家。

杜特尔特去年对南海仲裁胜利表现得轻描淡写,称在领土争端问题上他更青睐于与中国进行直接对话。英国风险咨询公司维里斯克-梅普尔克罗夫特咨询公司驻新加坡政治分析师欧弗拉西亚·泰勒说,虽然在杜特尔特前任执政时期,越南与菲律宾曾“绑在同一条船上”,但自从杜特尔特就任总统以来,两国关系已经恶化。

新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院研究员高瑞连说,其他东南亚国家在南海的直接利益较小,而且都急于想获得中国的投资,因此都不愿意公开讨论中国的岛屿建设和国际法庭裁定等问题。

高瑞连说:“这一点都不奇怪,因为东盟国家不想破坏气氛。”

越南的南海战略可能还受到了国内问题的掣肘。然后还有海军方面的考虑。

夏威夷井上建亚太安全研究中心的越南问题专家亚历山大·武温说,说,今年夏天越南很可能下令雷普索尔公司停止了钻探活动。

据武温估计,从吨位来讲,越南从2013年至2017年大致将其海岸警卫队规模扩大了一倍。接受采访的分析师和防务官员们说,越南也在对其海上侦察能力进行投资。波林说,越南的整体目标是在海上遏制中国。

泰勒说,她估计越南将继续与外国伙伴一道开采南海能源资源,部分原因是因为政府迫切希望实现能源安全,为强劲的经济增长提供助力。她指出,迄今为止,越南“一直在”与埃克森美孚公司商谈在海上另一区域开采天然气的计划。

泰勒说,越南对特朗普政府致力于南海问题的不确定性十分担心,不过,几十年来东南亚地区一直浸润在这种担心之中。

她说,即使是奥巴马政府所谓的转向亚洲政策也来得“有点迟,但总比从来没有好,不过也不足以令人放心”。

责任编辑:穆启春 CN063
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