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英媒:中印竞争或将决定未来世界格局

2017-06-08 04:47:07   参考消息

参考消息网6月8日报道 英国《金融时报》6月7日发表专栏作家吉迪恩·拉赫曼的文章《21世纪的中印竞争》称,西方人热衷分析美中之间的强国斗争,然而最终决定21世纪格局的,或许会是中印之间的竞争。

文章称,过去十年,中国一直在收集各种“第一”——全球最大制造业国家、全球最大出口国、全球最大外汇储备国、全球最大汽车市场。2014年,国际货币基金组织(IMF)甚至曾报告称,以购买力计算,中国是全球最大经济体。

不过,中国也许已经失去了一个“全球最大”头衔。新的非官方人口研究显示,全球人口最多国家可能是印度而非中国。这一新闻可能会助长印度一种日益攀升的感受,即尽管过去30年中国的崛起一直是个全球话题,下一个30年将成为印度闪耀之时。

文章称,与中国相比,印度的人口趋势看起来对长期经济增长当然更有利一些。这并不仅仅因为印度人口或已超过中国,并将在未来以更快速度增长。更重要的是,印度人口比中国显著年轻,这意味着印度将拥有比中国更庞大的劳动年龄人口,需要供养的退休人口更少。日本近期的历史证明,老龄化并处于收缩中的人口,对经济增长会产生巨大的负面影响。

这种人口因素也许已经在向经济增长速度反馈了。印度的增长速度正在超过中国,预计今年的增速会超过7%,相比之下中国官方增长数据为6.5%。

文章指出,对于印度就要赶上和超过中国的观点,存在一些强有力的限定条件。首先,中国实际经济规模已经是印度的5倍。这意味着即便印度目前的增速百分比比中国略高一些,中印两个经济体规模上的差距仍在增大,而不是在缩小。

其次,尽管人口因素有利于印度,在其他重要方面,中国则更有利一些。印度30%的人口是文盲,而中国文盲比例则低于5%。中国的基础设施也远远优于印度,这表现在公路、铁路和基本卫生系统上。半数印度人仍然缺乏基本的厕所设施。

文章称,这种比较不仅仅是文字游戏。它们的重要性在于,中国和印度是21世纪两个新兴大国。两个国家已卷入了一轮低调的地缘政治和意识形态斗争。

文章称,对于中国建立横跨亚洲的基础设施网络的计划,印度的反应十分敏感。这些基础设施开发的影响既有战略上的,也有经济上的。在中国海军正迅速扩大的时期,新德里方面正以尤为怀疑的眼光看待中国出资在南亚建设的港口。

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