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美国《美国保守派》双月刊12月22日文章,原题:鹰派的盲点及挑衅中国的危险卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员迈克尔·斯温曾撰文说,若美国放弃一个中国政策,就是基于过去的一个错觉:即北京不会把美国试图将台湾与中国大陆永久分离的明显举动,视为对中国政府及其国内稳定的生存威胁,从而动用一切必要手段防止,包括武力。然而,中国肯定会反击的。几十年来无数中国问题专家和外交分析家对该问题的探讨,一再佐证中国在台湾问题上的决心。
实际上,北京动用武力阻止台湾分离的可能性非常高,即便知道或许不会成功。因为若出手阻止“台独”,即便没成功,中国精英和公众也会原谅,但他们一定不会容忍中国面对华盛顿与北京几十年共识的背叛,以及中华民族受到攻击时无所作为。
在理解其他政府如何应对挑衅时,美国鹰派通常会存在三大盲点:低估别国愿为保护至关重要东西的决心;以为别国政府会在强压下屈服于美国的要求;通常不会认识到,若别国对美进行类似挑衅,他们的反应会很负面。在围绕特朗普挑衅中国的讨论中,我们已看到所有上述三个错误。
若美中位置互换,那些欢呼特朗普“勇敢”的鹰派会对中国公然插手我们的本国事务勃然大怒。若中国想拿被我们视为不可谈判的东西作为交易,这些鹰派会第一个跳出来斥责这是可耻的绥靖。美国鹰派往往看不到,别国也有强硬派,也会坚决面对外国挑战,尤其是当涉及国家核心利益的时候。
如卡托研究所高级研究员泰德·卡朋特所说,台湾对北京而言绝非一般问题:在大多数中国人看来,台湾不仅是一处战略和经济资产——尽管这些对北京也很重要。台湾处于19至20世纪初受到西方(及日本)的伤害、至今未痊愈的中国人身份认同的核心。冷战后,美国决策者总是不把他国的民族主义当回事,这给美国外交政策造成重大损害。低估中国民族主义的重要性,特别是涉及台湾问题时,将酿成最严重、最危险的失败。(作者丹尼尔·拉里森,乔恒译)
责任编辑:高宗影 CN060
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