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俄专家:俄为苏联解体最大赢家 重建联盟思想仍在

2016-12-13 03:18:52   参考消息网

参考消息网12月13日报道俄罗斯卫星网12月8日发表俄罗斯系统分析和预测中心主任罗斯季斯拉夫·伊先科的一篇文章,题为《别洛韦日叛乱:苏联解体的获益者是谁》,全文如下:

在四分之一个世纪前的1991年12月8日,俄罗斯总统鲍里斯·叶利钦、3天前(12月5日)刚刚就任的乌克兰总统列昂尼德·克拉夫丘克和白俄罗斯最高苏维埃主席斯坦尼斯拉夫·舒什克维奇在别洛韦日森林的维斯库利别墅实施了“国家政变”。

不顾多数苏联公民支持保留苏联的公投结果,违背苏联宪法确定的退出规则,没有获得正式法律授权的他们以自己代表的共和国是苏联创始国为由,宣布终止苏联存在。

即使叶利钦、克拉夫丘克、舒什克维奇自认为有权代表苏联的创始国,且三国议会事后各自批准了协议也是对其行为的认可,但创始国中还有外高加索苏维埃社会主义联邦共和国。后者联合了3个独立加盟共和国(格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆)。尽管外高加索苏维埃社会主义联邦共和国早在1991年之前就不复存在了(于1936年12月5日解散),但格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆仍然是货真价实的苏联创始国。

如此看来,维斯库利别墅的阴谋家们没有凑够法定人数。苏联解体是半数创始国确定的,甚至没有为了装门面而关心一下另外半数创始国的意见。

不过,尽管在别洛韦日签署的文件显然没有法律价值,但苏联还是在短暂挣扎后解体了。

苏联不可能恢复

直到今天,仍有很多平民主义政治家和不怀好意的政论家试图让群众相信,只要宣布别洛韦日协议无效,就可以恢复苏联。

但25年来已经物是人非,苏联各加盟共和国在独立后建立了各种新的政治和经济体制,苏联旧体制的东西已经所剩无几,除了红场的列宁墓和克里姆林宫塔楼上的红星。

即使重建统一的联盟国家理论上可行——尽管需要付出至少10年时间(或许更久)和艰苦、耗费资源且很大程度上毫无意义的劳动,恢复作为社会主义国家的苏联也是不可能的。

这正如人不能2次跨过同一条河。在20世纪初向布尔什维克人打开的唯一机会之窗早已关闭。

当时,在第一次世界大战之后,旧体制危机使得左翼思想风生水起——哪怕只是因为是右翼政治家发动了战争。如今,当代的系统性危机又导致右翼民族主义政治家得到拥护,哪怕只是因为基于左翼自由主义和托洛茨基部分思想的全球化计划破产。

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