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美拉拢越南细致入微:经营次要战略方向兢兢业业

2016-05-24 10:04:33   参考消息

参考消息网5月23日报道 从5月22日开始,美国总统奥巴马抵达越南首都河内进行为期3天的正式访问。奥巴马也成为继克林顿和小布什之后,越战结束以来第三位访问越南的美国总统。据美联社等媒体报道,美国白宫方面透露,此番奥巴马将与越南领导会谈,讨论加强越美在经济、安全领域等领域合作的方式。尤其,对“美国解除对越南的武器禁运”问题的探讨,十分引人注目。

其实,从美国全球战略布局来看,南海乃至东亚地区并非是美国的主要战略方向。其主要方向一直在在欧洲和中东地区。冷战中,美国和苏联在欧洲的明争暗斗,激烈程度超过了其他任何地区。可以说,除了兵戎相见,其他什么都较量过。中东地区则一直与美国维系全球金融霸权体系有着密切关系,还关系到全球能源线路的通畅。因此,美国对中东地区则从来没有放松,一直“坚定地”支持以色列,就是表现之一。

观点或会提出疑义:冷战时期,美军大规模参战的地区,都在亚太地区(具体说是中国周边的东亚地区),怎么能说东亚地区是美国的“次要战略方向”。其实,“次要”只是相对而非绝对。而且,本文所说的“次要”,指的是美国对不同地区的基本战略定位,而不是具体行动的力度。

先说战略定位。前文提到的欧洲和中东,对美国来说是“必须抓紧”的地区,再难也不能走。因此,无论局势多么复杂,情况多么恶化,美国必须要应对,而且必须要有所作为。这就是为什么在欧洲其会借乌克兰问题上挑动俄罗斯最敏感的神经,同时坚持推行北约东扩的原因。而在中东乱局的大背景下,美国还以军事力量保持对该地区的压力,即便其表面上已从伊拉克和阿富汗“抽身而退”。

而在亚太地区,美国的方式则“灵活进退”。冷战时,苏联势力在东亚地区影响力正盛,美军扶持的中国国民政府失败,甚至“被动卷入”(注:此为美方观点,其实是其当时的战略选择不多)朝鲜战争和越南战争。在这种情况下,美国相继退出中国大陆和中南半岛。在越南,1976年越南南北实现统一后,美国推行战略收缩政策。曾经的“亚洲第一军港”——越南的金兰湾,在1979年成为苏联海军的前哨基地。这种“说走就走”的行为,表面上是因为军事斗争失利,根本原因还是美国对该地区本来就有“可以暂时离开”的选项。

当然,“暂时离开”也是相对的。在东亚地区,美国通过一些盟友“间接”实施战略目的。比如,冷战到现在,美国一直支持韩国、日本、中国台湾当局等,形成“岛链”来遏制中国大陆;借朝鲜半岛危机和核问题,以“国际调停”的角色介入东北亚地区局势;在越南,美国则充分利用了各种矛盾。

越南因经济等原因,在20世纪80年代开始,试图同美国修复关系。美国则借此逐步因势利导。1995年,美国克林顿政府与越南正式建交,但直到2000年11月,克林顿才成为越战后首位访越的美国总统,美越两国军事合作正式拉开帷幕。期间的5年时间,美国充分运作,表面上“增进美越互信”,实质上则不断“放出诱饵”,将越南逐步拉入美国自己的“战略步调”。

进入21世纪后,特别是奥巴马上台后,一改此前美政府的做法,高调宣布“重返东南亚”,继而拓展为“重返亚太”“亚太再平衡”。美国和越南在政治、军事层面的互动也越来越多。比如,2010年美第7舰队访越并开展“非作战性”联合演习,目前已成常态化。2015年7月,越南领导人阮富仲首次以越共总书记的身份对美国进行“历史性”访问。而今年5月奥巴马访越,可以说是与阮富仲访美的外交互动。美国的这些动作,不可谓不细致,也不可谓不周密。如此看,美国经营所谓的“次要战略方向”,依然“兢兢业业”,这本质上是因为其掌握全球战略主动权,能在“合适的限度内”予取予求。(作者/王绥翊)

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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