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美报告:中国与美冲突可能先发制人 美不得不防

2016-03-31 09:55:28   王会聪

进行地面测试歼-20战斗机

【环球军事报道】据美国《防务新闻》网站29日报道,美国国会研究局的一份新报告警告称,美国的中国问题观察家可能正在误读中国的军事意图,因为他们不但倾向于使用想当然的‘镜像’思维方式,还容易忽略“中国缺乏透明度”“频施烟幕弹”,以及中国军方主张在战时与和平时期“不加区别地”发动网络战等“现实”。

这份46页的报告名为《中国军队:概述和国会需要了解的问题》。该报告作者、美国国会研究局亚洲事务分析师伊恩·E·莱恩哈特声称,美国国会务必开始仔细研究“中国的战争之道”,其中包括诸多将“很可能”决定战争输赢,但基本上却被美方忽视的因素。报道称,莱恩哈特在报告中敦促美方必须注意以下问题:

●不同的地缘责任范围:美军在包括欧洲和中东在内的全球各地承担安全责任,在与中国交战时,美军只能投入有限的资源。相比之下,中国军队并不面临此类限制。

●不同的使命:衡量某支军队实力的更有效方式,是将之与其担负的使命相比,这比其他任何标尺更有意义。鉴于中美两军的使命截然不同,这对评估两军实力很重要。

●中国的声明或许并不总是“可信”:中国经常通过白皮书和公开声明阐述军队的总体意图。这些声明可能是意在影响国内外听众的宣传攻势,或许不能为准确理解中国真正军事意图提供帮助。另一方面,亦不应将所有声明都当成“摆姿态”。中国有关本国“核心利益”和决心通过军队捍卫这些利益的声明,很可能是真的。

●有限的透明度:与判断中国意图一样,有限透明度也使评估中国军队实力的问题更复杂。五角大楼称:“中国逐渐壮大的军事实力和战略决策缺乏透明,正使该地区更担忧中国的意图。”

●镜像思维:中美两国领导人的价值观不同,甚至相去甚远。“镜像思维,即默认或下意识地认为他人与自己拥有相同的价值观和信仰,将会降低评估他人意图的准确性,”该报告称。

●主动防御/在太空展开先发制人的打击:中国的军事战略家高度重视在冲突中抢占主动权。“一些观察家相信,中国军队将选择攻击对手的信息网络,”该报告称。中国将动用包括动能武器和电子战在内的各种手段,破坏美军的军事卫星网络。对中国来说,先发制人的打击策略更可取,因为这将为接下来的冲突打下基础,并使进攻者明显处于有利位置。▲ (王会聪)

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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