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基辛格:中美开战将致灾难后果 邻国将选边站队

2016-03-23 10:46:03   环球网

3月5日,美国海军“斯坦尼斯”号航母在南海进行战术训练。

【环球军事报道】新加坡《联合早报》网站3月21日刊文称,美国前国务卿基辛格指出,在南中国海、朝核等地区问题上,中美需要有类似于1972年《上海公报》的指导文件或共识,最终形成和平的结果。他也警告称,中美如果冲突将导致灾难性后果。

正在北京召开的中国发展高层论坛19日以“避免修昔底德陷阱”为主题,安排93岁的基辛格与中国前国务委员戴秉国进行了对话。

作为上世纪70年代中美建交的开拓者及见证者,基辛格回忆说,中美为达成《上海公报》(中美两国政府1972年在上海签署的联合公报)谈了很久,双方都知道想达成一个说服对方的绝对性结果是不可能的,因此选择宏观、原则性地阐述立场,最后形成了公报。他说:“我觉得这个《上海公报》的精神也可以适用于南中国海问题。”

针对中美关系的未来,基辛格强调两国“应该有长远的眼光”。他说:“中美是合作伙伴而非对手,这就是我所期待的。”

基辛格指出,中美之间不存在“新崛起的大国必然挑战现存大国,战争不可避免”的“修昔底德陷阱”。如果美中出现冲突,就会迫使其他国家选边站队,会对世界带来不可想象的严重后果。

他说,中美关系是一种特殊的关系,可以说一定程度上符合“修昔底德陷阱”双方的特性,一个是正在崛起的国家,另外一个是守成的大国。但是“修昔底德陷阱”的具体概念,要放在一个特殊的国际关系背景下看待,这种背景在现在的中美关系之间并不存在。

基辛格说:“中美之间并没有这种相互取代的关系,也没有这样一种意图,中国并没有意图要取代美国成为世界上的一个超级大国。”

他认为,中美关系不同于一战前的英德关系,“因为我们所生活的时代和世界已经大不同”,世界各国在过去半个多世纪里早已吸取教训,而没有一个国家有野心挑起世界大战。与此同时,和平的意识在提高,军事技术的极大进步不仅不必然导致军事冲突,反而可以用来降低发生军事冲突的可能性。

不过基辛格也提醒称,目前世界不同的地区都有危机,中东地区因宗教、地缘等因素出现了混乱的局面,亟须恢复地区秩序。从政治秩序上来说,中美合作至关重要,如果中美发生冲突将导致灾难性后果。从经济秩序上来说,一方面中美竞争固然不可避免,但合作更会造福两国和整个世界。

责任编辑:张海潮 CM013
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