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中央密集开会研究下半年经济 这四字何以如此重要?

2017-07-27 08:34:47   中国青年网

现在大家则看得更明确,目前土地、劳动力等要素价格越来越高,资源、环境的约束越来越紧;这种市场条件下,“僵尸企业”自我造血能力更显得不足,只能依靠财政补贴、贷款、资本市场融资或举债来“输血”。

中央之所以如此看重处置僵尸企业,是因为其中蕴藏的风险。

风险

2016年3月,首例地方国企违约事件——东北特钢违约事件爆发。该国企2015年第一期8亿短期融资债券违约,到了7月,已有连续7只债券违约;10月,东北特钢进入破产重组程序。

这不仅揭开了地方国企困境的冰山一角,还让债务违约的阴云开始笼罩在投资人心头。随后,山东、山西、内蒙古、安徽等多个地区的国企债务偿还出现风险,甚至是危机。“区域性风险”,说的就是这一类。

虽然有风险,但在银、政、企特殊的关系中,地方政府倾向于通过行政手段来呵护“僵尸企业”,掩盖了债务风险。例如去年5月,河南省出台举措要求“建立抽贷、压贷提前告知制度,对正常还本付息、并且整体授信条件没有发生变化的企业,各银行原则上不抽贷、压贷或通过要求增加授信条件而变相不续贷。”河南一些煤炭、电解铝、钢铁企业便保住了信贷规模不压减。

处置风险,要降杠杆。

国家统计局的数据显示,僵尸企业的平均资产负债率是72%,一般企业的平均资产负债率是51%。比如钢铁行业,中钢协2016年会员的平均负债率为69.6%,负债率低的都是规模小的企业,11家大型企业则负债率超过90%。

国家资产负债表研究中心数据显示,2016年,实体部门杠杆率高达227%;2015年,我国实体部门的利息支出是GDP增量的2倍,2016年为1.4倍——也就是说,我国的经济的债务偿还压力巨大。

另外一个数据也引人注目:2016年,我国政府债务负担占GDP比重已经达到55.6%。非金融企业债务中,又有70%左右是国企和地方融资平台债务;而国企中,则包含大量产能过剩行业,如煤炭、钢铁、有色、化工等。如何化解这样的债务负担,将是对很多地方管理者的严峻考验。

咋整

毫无疑问,处置“僵尸企业”是个庞杂的系统性工程,其中有几个关键的问题:人往哪里去,钱从何处来,债务怎么销。

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