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31个省份晒成绩单,辽宁这次终于由负转正

2017-05-01 09:27:22   中国网

北京一季度商品房销售面积下降

从一季度的房地产投资数据看,全国平均为9.1%。在公布数据的24个省区市中,3地房地产投资出现负增长,分别为重庆、福建和北京,降幅分别达到0.8%、1.7%和7.2%。与此同时也有一些省份房地产投资增长很快,比如广西最高,达31.9%,河南为25.2%,陕西为19.5%等等。

房地产投资过高是否意味着一地经济过分依赖房地产?徐洪才表示不能简单的将二者划上等号。他说,一线城市也曾经经历过房地产投资很高的时代,主要还是因为有需求。特别对于河南、陕西等中部省份,城镇化任务重,需求也大,房地产投资增速快是比较正常的,对GDP当然会有贡献。

一季度商品房销售面积海南增速突出,达到103.8%,而北京、上海、甘肃有所下降,分别下降了8%、32.6%和0.69%。而一季度商品房销售额全国增速为25.1%,包括重庆、云南、福建、河南、广西和山西在内的6地增速超过40%,其中山西达到54.7%。

对于北京和上海两地,报告中没有提到商品房销售额数据。但北京的房地产投资和房地产销售面积、上海的销售面积都在下降。面对这两个超级城市的需求,数据上的下降是否意味着未来房地产将出现供应不足,继而引起价格上涨?徐洪才告诉政知局(微信ID:bqzhengzhiju),他认为这种情况不仅不可能,反而价格会下降,特别是对于北京而言。他表示,北京今年实行了一系列调控房地产的举措,效果现在还没有特别显现,未来应该有明显的变化。他认为北京不会缺少房子供应,而且价格拐点已经到了。

津沪民间投资增速“惊人”

一季度民间投资回暖明显,全国平均数据7.7%,这被认为是实体经济向好的一大指标。

从各省的数据看,有不少在民间投资增速方面数字“惊人”,比如宁夏民间投资增速高达31.2%、上海23.8%,天津18.6%。同时,北京和吉林的民间投资为负数,分别下降7.3%和7.1%。北京在报告中特别提及,有关房地产方面的民间投资占了其中的6.1%的降速。

同为一线城市,北京和上海为何在民间投资方面差距如此之大?徐洪才认为,北京目前正处在向外“疏解”的过程中,一方面对于希望投资的产业和资本审核会更严,另外进行房地产调控,势必会把很多投资挡在门外。如果和上海相比,可能更多的是因为上海可以向周边辐射得更广,浙江、江苏等省份经济都很不错,所以上海对于民间投资的吸引力会更大些,但是北京周边省市经济发展没有上海那么成熟。

徐洪才表示,民间投资增速回暖是非常好的征兆,说明之前采取的一系列改革措施发挥了作用。对于未来民间投资的趋势,他认为还有上升的空间,但能否真正继续增加要看后续改革的情况。

责任编辑:丁勇 CN007
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