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汤森路透发布2016诺奖预测 两位华人科学家入选

2016-09-22 11:44:54   澎湃

为什么汤森路透能够如此准确地预测出诺奖获得者?这来源于汤森路透的诺奖预测方法,预测考察主要是四个步骤:

一、在不同领域中统计出科研人员30年内的总被引次数和高被引论文数。

通过统计过去三十年里每个小领域内各个重要作者的总引用量、单篇引用量、高被引文章总数,以及领域内每篇论文的平均被引次数,或每位作者的平均被引次数,作者是否拥有多篇高被引论文等多个指标,决定哪些领域是热门领域,这些高被引作者是否是该领域的开创者,这些作者是否曾经因该项工作多次获奖。

二、评估该科研人员的研究内容,发掘被引频次背后的特征。

关注他的被引频次是集中在某一项研究成果上,还是散布于多项研究成果中?发掘出哪些领域是热门领域?该科研人员是否是该领域的开创者,是否是高被引论文的主要贡献?研究成果是否在领域内具有重大的意义,是不是具有理论前瞻性,是革命性的发现还是扩展了已有的基础研究成果?确定其成果与其他候选人相比是否具有优势。最后,需要特别注意的一点是,该研究领域是否已经授予过诺贝尔奖。

三、识别重大研究成果的主要贡献者。

根据诺贝尔的遗愿,每一个奖项的获奖者不能超过三位,所以必须精简候选人名单。

四、参考同行的尊重与认可。

除了定量分析,还需要考虑到一些非研究因素。比如,相关学科的一些重要奖项往往具有重要的指向作用,可以作为诺贝尔奖的“风向标”,拉斯克医学奖、沃尔夫奖、日本京都奖、克拉福德奖等都是很好的“标尺”。需要关注的还有科研人员的学术头衔,例如:国家科学院院士、外国科学院院士;或者是否在重要学术团体中任职等。此外,在国内和国际学术会议中发表过主题演讲,在大学或重要实验室中担任高级职位,以及在高影响力国际期刊中担任编委,都能为科研人员的诺奖之路加分。

今年诺贝尔奖近在咫尺,揭晓仪式将于10月3日起陆续举行,各奖项的具体揭晓时间如下(北京时间):

生理学或医学奖:10月3日17时30分;

物理学奖:10月4日17时45分;

化学奖:10月5日17时45分;

和平奖:10月7日17时;

经济学奖:10月10日17时45分。

文学奖的揭晓时间尚未最终确定,但按照往年规律,文学奖当会在化学奖公布的次日揭晓,也就是10月6日。奖金方面,由于受到经济危机的影响,从2012年起,诺奖总奖金由1000万瑞典克朗(约780万元人民币)缩水至去年的800万瑞典克朗(约624万元人民币),今年奖金的具体数目尚未公布。

2016引文桂冠奖能贡献几位诺贝尔奖得主?结果将在两周后公布。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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