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莫迪会出席金砖峰会吗?国新办:没信息说他不来

2017-08-28 14:41:48   国新办

张燕生:刚才我讲到金砖机制十年了,十年是一个什么概念呢?也就是说,我们可以比较一下国际的各种各样的机制,比如G7、G8,也包括不结盟运动等等,我们可以看到,这些机制有几十年、上百年的时间。因此,金砖机制这十年,有时候我经常在想,如果比喻一个人说100岁,他只有10岁,10岁也就是说还处于发展的初期。金砖机制就要在发展初期、发展中期和发展晚期,不同的时期解决不同的问题。所以,您刚才讲的非常好,现在金砖的五个国家,像俄罗斯、巴西、南非都遇到了发展的结构性矛盾。所以,金砖国家有一个很重要的机制,就是要为新兴市场和发展中国家探索出一个合作能够发展的途径。因为,俄罗斯、巴西、南非的经济对大宗商品、对资源能源的依赖性比较强,也就是说发展如何实现结构的多元化,这是发展的问题。这样一来,金砖合作,中国印度与俄罗斯、巴西、南非的合作,就是要解决发展的结构性矛盾。这个如果能够良好解决,就是人类社会巨大的贡献,我们经济学叫“荷兰病”,所谓“荷兰病”也就只有天然气的资源的发展导致了一个国家的经济倒退。因此治理“荷兰病”是我们发展中的一个重要问题。

还有一个问题,中国和印度是两个大国,大国经济的优点是结构比较多元化,但是大国经济的问题就是如何能够从低收入上升到中等收入,上升到高收入,每一步都有陷阱。低收入的陷阱我们叫低收入的恶性循环,中等收入陷阱就是很多发展中国家到了中等收入就上不去了,其实高收入也有陷阱,现在发达国家遇到的问题。因此,对于像我们和印度这样的国家,怎么克服低收入陷阱和中等收入的陷阱,都是我们金砖合作机制需要解决的第二个重要问题。

第三个重要问题,中国和印度在边境上和发展上都会有一些问题和矛盾,这也是对我们金砖机制提出了一个非常有价值的问题,就是金砖机制如何能够站位更高,来解决好就是发展中世界怎么能够经营好和平,怎么能够经营好发展,怎么能够经营好合作,我觉得这个对金砖机制下一步要建立起一个共识和行动,就是今后遇到各种各样的矛盾和问题的时候,金砖机制应当采取什么样的原则、什么样的办法,来解决各个不同层次的矛盾、冲突和问题。

张建平:其实你的这个问题是代表了一个典型的叫做“金砖褪色论”,这个论调最近这段时间已经有一段时间了,但是我也提醒你,其实金砖的概念恰好是我们美国高盛集团的经济学家他们提出来的。所以,作为美国的机构现在反倒是在怀疑这个,其实也是不应该的,原因是什么呢?大家会看到金砖国家,尽管巴西、南非和俄罗斯陷入到了“资源诅咒”当中,但是不要忘了刚才张燕生秘书长提到的在金砖国家目前来说,对全球经济增长的贡献,也就是增量这块达到了52%。发达国家虽然说在世界经济当中总量的比重比较大,那是存量,但是要看增量的话,美国和日本现在对世界经济增长的贡献要远远低于金砖国家。当然,金砖五个国家联合起来,整个GDP在最近这十年、占全球的比重,从11%上升到23%,如果再看未来十年或者二十年,这个比重会稳步的不断地提高,而发展中国家的比重、发达国家的比重会逐渐的下降,从动态的过程来看,金砖国家合作应该说含金量越来越高。

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