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李光耀之后,新加坡不能像这个中东小国一样鲁莽

2017-09-20 08:59:59   瞭望智库

1991至1992我在哈佛大学的那一年,约瑟夫·奈教授在他的历史课上不断强调这一准则。李光耀先生从不表现得像一个小国的领导人,他会对包括美国、中国、俄罗斯、印度等大国公开地发表评论。然而,他能如此做是他通过努力所换来的,因为大国都将他视作全球性的政治家,所以尊重他。我们现在处于后李光耀时代,而可悲的是,我们没有一个像李光耀先生一样受尊敬的全球性政治家。因此,我们应该改变我们的行为。

我们首先要做的是什么?谨慎斟酌。我们对大国之间的事务评价应当非常克制。因此,对于国际法庭对中国和菲律宾在南海争端上的仲裁判决,聪明的做法应当是更加审慎地对待。当我听到我们的一些官员代表说我们应该对地缘政治问题采取“一贯和有原则性”的立场时,我想提醒他们,一致性和有原则是重要的,但不能是代表我们外交政策的唯一特性。而且时间点也很重要,表明我们立场的最好时机,不一定是要在一群大国中间挑事端。我之后的一本书就是关于我们三个地缘政治的大师:李光耀先生、吴庆瑞博士和拉惹勒南先生。我从他们身上学到了很多。最重要的是,我从他们那了解到,一个小国在国际事务中应当是马基雅维利式(Machiavellian)的。在外交中,道德和原则是很重要,我们应该给人以可靠的、值得信赖的商讨者的印象,但是在地缘政治中一条不可否认的硬理是,有时候原则和道德必须把握在审慎务实的道路上。

2003年,在当我担任驻联合国大使时,尽管没有得到安理会的认可,但新加坡还是支持美国入侵伊拉克。如安南先生所说,这是一场非法的战争,然而,我们还是慎重地遵从了我们地缘政治的利益,而不是道德原则。在丛林法则中,只要大象不在小动物的领地上,无论怎样都不会有哪个小动物敢站在大象面前。因此,以卡塔尔为鉴,问问自己,近年来我们是否表现得足够马基雅维利式(Machiavellian)。

2,珍视地区机制

我们的邻国不像卡塔尔的邻国那样采取措施反对我们,这是有许多原因的。最大的原因是东盟,我们在东南亚国家之间有很高的信任度。正如孙合记先生(Jeffery Sng)和我在最近出版的《东盟奇迹》一书中所述,东盟已经形成了一种和平的生态环境。谁是这种和平的生态环境最大的受益者呢?是新加坡。在这个地区,没有一个国家的贸易总额是其国内生产总值的31/2倍。我们所有的贸易都有赖于东盟的和平环境。而我们在努力地巩固增强东盟吗?答案是不,我们的书里有解释为什么。

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