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郑永年:印度赶不上中国,因他们缺少秦始皇和毛泽东

2017-09-12 08:05:45   IPP

在历史上,从未有过印度国家的出现。无论是德里苏丹,还是莫卧儿帝国,亦或是马拉地帝国,都未能将这一区域统合成一个国家;哪怕是在英属印度时期,大约一半的印度领土实际上是由土邦领主以半独立的形式治理;(下图为独立前的英属印度,蓝色为半独立的政治实体——土邦王国,大多有着自己的军队,居住着操持不同语言的不同族群)

独立后的印度在政治上运行大众民主政治,通俗的说就是一人一票的选举政治。在美国为代表的西方国家,政治选举的胜负往往取决于政党和竞选者的施政纲领是否得到选民认可,以及施政结果是否达到选民预期。政党与竞选者因此需要努力促进经济发展,增进社会福祉,才能获得执政权。这种良好的运作是建立在美国文化统一,宗教信仰基本统一,最重要的是社会中产阶级是选民中的绝对多数这三个基本前提下的。当一人一票的制度运行在印度运行时,就呈现出了另一个结果。

在印度很多地区,由于宗教、种族的分裂,选民投票时并不是考虑候选人或者政党的施政纲领和执政效果,而是看政党是不是代表自己的宗教或者种族。所以在印度很多半独立性质的邦,执政党往往是因为代表着这里的宗教或种族而执政。如果执政党只需要让自己宗教的信徒或自己代表的种族满意,同时煽动对其它宗教或种族的仇恨和歧视就可以持续获得政权,那么他们就没有动力和精力去发展经济。

在殖民时代和帝国时代的封建贵族,在大众民主的外壳下,摇身一变成了垄断地方行政权力的家族政治势力。他们组建的地方政党是政党领袖世袭的家族政党。首先,他们本身的贵族身份意味着他们拥有大量的土地,当地的很多农户,都是他们的佃农。这在印度独立初期的第一代选举中让他们占尽优势。佃农们将选票投给他们家族的政党,佃农就会获得一定的小恩小惠,佃农如果敢不投票给他们的政党,他们就可以用各种手段盘剥租种他们土地的佃农。

当这些地方贵族当选后,他们紧接着就会动用行政权力将地方的民生经济如道路,加油站等控制在自己家族的企业手中,然后下一次竞选,他们能够对底层贫困百姓施以的恩惠就会更多,对底层百姓选票的控力就会更强。如此循环。这种经济结构造成了印度地方的家族政治。例如印度的旁遮普邦,锡克教占绝大多数,当地的执政家族是巴沙尔家族,现任邦首席部长是帕喀什.巴沙尔,副首席部长苏克比尔.巴沙尔是他的儿子。该家族占据了该地交通、电力、通信、酒店等大部分市场。

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