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在这个“黑科技”领域,中国已站到全球第一阵营

2017-09-04 11:44:29   参考消息网

普华永道的报告说,以人工智能技术为代表的“第四次工业革命”,到2030年预计将带动全球GDP增长14%——相当于为世界带来15.7万亿美元经济增长,这个数字超过了中国和印度目前的经济总量之和,而这些经济增长中约半数将归中国所有,从这个意义上看,这条快车道也是一条致富之路。

人工智能也要定规矩

“中国快车道”固然给人工智能发展提供了诸多便利,但人工智能的出现是服务于人,所以在开发人工智能的背后,不仅仅是注重其带来的经济效益,更要处理好“制造者”、“驾驶员”和“交警”之间的关系,适当的“亮黄灯”予以警惕,并制定规矩保障安全,人工智能这部车可能会开得更稳、更快。

1.“制造者”要谨守道德底线

研发人工智能,背后都有巨大商业利益的驱动,道德伦理不得不引起重视。人工智能是有规则的决策系统,规则的建立将会反映出开发者的“底线”。一方面是如何赋予人工智能伦理道德,举个简单的例子来看,大部分人工智能的研究者都是遵循伦理的人,但也不排除“黑天鹅效应”,有人专门开发人工智能手段从事“伤害人类个体”的活动,例如美军正在研发的“杀人机器人”,就引起不少争论。

另一方面,应不应该开发人工智能自身的伦理道德,人工智能的研究者是否会避免创造出哲学家所谓“有道德意义的存在体”?长期来看,机器人、仿生人等超级智能具有自身的伦理道德系统尽管可以自身行为,但一旦逾越人类社会的道德底线,其结果是灾难性的,人工智能这部车极有可能会驶出快道,坠入深渊。

2.“驾驶员”需提高自身素质

人工智能基于互联网,与所有的颠覆性技术一样,具备相应的风险特征;会出现难以捉摸和难以预测的时候,对于能够驾驭人工智能的“驾驶员”素质有着更高的要求。

一是以决策判断能力应对其快速迭代,人工智能程序的研发升级间隔期会越来越短,由此所带来的不确定性就会更大,行业间不良竞争等现象可能会伴随而生。

二是以快速适应能力应对其快速扩散,新的科技革命的速度太快,例如我们刚使用智能手机不久,网络约车、网上购物、网上支付等颠覆性技术应用就来了。如何面对如此迅速且大范围的变革而不被淘汰需要提前规划。

三是以自我约束能力应对其健康危害,人们具有容易被新事物吸引的好奇心,还有很强的攀比心理,还可能让消费者产生严重的依赖性。譬如智能手机,越来越多的人沦为“手机成瘾者”,影响到正常生活。

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