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此外,氢弹相比原子弹的最大优势就是威力远超后者,而朝鲜试爆的这颗“氢弹”当量还不及之前的原子弹,失去了实用意义。
不过中国知名核战略专家杨承军6日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,单凭这些初步数据还不能完全否认朝鲜进行氢弹试验的可能性。朝鲜也有可能是已掌握氢弹技术,但受限于试验场的环境限制,无法试爆大当量氢弹,因而被迫减少核装药。印度政府在解释1998年“热核试验当量过小”时,也曾宣称是“有意削减当量”,以免造成对附近村庄的破坏和对大气层的放射性污染。
目前外界对这次朝鲜核试验的判断,几乎完全来自监测到的地震震级。但震级除与核爆当量挂钩外,还与爆炸方式、爆点地质、传播途径、核装置埋入深度、与断裂层距离、断裂层活跃程度等因素密切相关。例如西方根据地震震级评估认为,印度1998年“热核试验”若是在硬岩中进行,当量为1.5万-3万吨;如果在松软地质结构中则为3万-6万吨。甚至还曾出现过苏联在中亚核试验场试爆500吨级核弹头,和美国在内华达核试验场引爆2200吨级核弹头,同样引发4.2级地震的情况。因此这次朝鲜核试验的具体当量,还需要综合后续收集的情报才能得出准确结论。
相比而言,对地下核试验释放的放射性同位素进行监测更为准确。不同种类的核试验会产生特殊的放射性同位素,核爆后它们被吹到周围的空气和土壤中。对这些同位素进行分析,就能判定核试验种类。有报道称,美军已决定出动飞机前往朝鲜半岛上空取样,以确认朝鲜核试验情况。
杨承军强调,即便朝鲜成功试爆氢弹,但距离实战仍很远。例如核弹头的运载工具还没有真正解决,弹头小型化以及头体组合的问题有待攻关,引爆控制技术也还需突破,这些都会影响朝鲜核武器的实战能力。
责任编辑:张晓伟 CN042
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