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南海问题上,为何域外国家更活跃?

2017-08-03 14:23:17   海外网

当然,我们也应该看到,这些域外国家已经不能再像以前那样明目张胆地宣示武力,甚至有些已经不再宣示武力了,但总感觉自己掌握着国际规则的话语权,认为本地区国家都会接受。不可否认,这些域外国家与本地区国家的关系还算比较友好,在本地区仍具有较强的软实力,甚至影响力。然而,这正是这些国家长期以来作为和平与发展的力量,尽量以平等的身份与本地区国家打交道的结果,而不是它们仍然能对本地区国家发号施令的结果。本地区国家的自主性意识都非常强,维护国家主权安全和领土完整的实力和能力在增长,对外部干预的敏感性也非常高,不会轻易被个别域外国家的“花言巧语”所迷惑。

因此,当个别域外国家试图以言语和行动干扰南海局势的和平与稳定时,虽然引起了国际社会的关注,但随之而来的是更多的质疑和否定。毕竟,南海地区目前呈现出“风平浪静”的态势更多是中国与东盟国家共同努力的结果,个别域外国家不仅没有立下“寸功”,反而老是传出一些不和谐的声音,试图让南海地区“再生波澜”,不得不引起本地区国家的警惕。

其实,个别域外大国近期在南海问题上显得相当躁动,实际上是在为马上即将举行的东亚合作系列外长会造势,要因此转移地区国家强调以合作为导向的潮流,扰乱这些多边合作机制的议程,将更多地时间和精力耗费在争议问题上,阻碍东亚合作的整体态势。然而,从流传出来的这些会议的联合公报草案文本来看,以东盟为核心、以平等协商一致为议事规则的这些机制还是体现了地区国家的普遍愿望与诉求,关于南海问题的言辞要比往年还要温和得多。

可以说,中国与东盟国家近年来在推动评估落实《南海各方行为宣言》情况和磋商“南海行为准则”上还是取得一些进展的,两者逐渐同时推进也为推行一些“早期收获”提供了可能,产生了让各方都相当满意的效果,为“南海行为准则”框架草案的最终达成奠定了很好的基础。可以相信,在中国与东盟国家的共同努力下,最终完成“南海行为准则”的磋商也将指日可待,南海问题也将可能发展成为一个和平、合作、繁荣之海,成为促进中国与东南亚国家共同发展的建设性公共产品。域外国家如果想继续与本地区国家友好相处,届时也将不得不承认、尊重本地区国家集体努力的成果。

个别域外国家正是因为逐渐失去了在南海问题上“折腾”的抓手,才让它们因气馁而失去了章法。中国与东盟国家磋商“南海行为准则”并没有邀请它们参加,使得其彻底失去了扰乱磋商进程和结果的机会,在国际社会上可以说是失了很大的面子。即使这些国家想以军事力量行使所谓的“航行自由”,也是小心谨慎,甚至畏首畏尾,瞻前顾后,犹豫不决,不仅担心做过了头引发难以收拾的尴尬局面,更不想因此破坏了与相关国家之间的关系。

因此,可以想见,英国两位重臣的“豪言壮语”可能不会只是“口头支票”,英国的新航空母舰可能真的会途经南海来东亚地区,到包括中国在内的国家进行和平友好访问。英国海军没有美国式的“航行自由行动”计划,因此没有国内法的束缚,便可像以往一样,严格遵守国际法,“静悄悄地”经过南海,但事后对外宣称其在南海地区行使了“航行自由”权利,让外界无法考证,但也可以稍微“炒作”或者“调侃”一番。这样一来,既不会影响中英两国的正常关系,也可以显示英国“脱欧”、“入世”,要在更广阔的国际舞台上发挥更大作用,为自己保留甚至赢得一点面子。其实,其他域外国家所能做的,大概也不过如此了。

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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