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美欧面临的问题不同,但背后原因和政策逻辑相似。移民和难民问题凸显,短期看是西方在西亚北非从事反恐战争和实施政权更迭的结果,长期看则与南北差距、全球化产生的赢家输家、不同宗教和文明之间的碰撞息息相关。这些新旧因素相互交织、相互作用,导致部分中东国家和西方国家内部均呈现出碎片化、极端化和暴力化的特征。
西方抬高移民和难民的门槛,其实是对全球大规模人口迁徙的被动管理。面对移民潮的冲击,美国曾在19世纪末和20世纪30年代采取限制措施,后在经济复苏的带动下,成功化解了负面影响,缓和了排外情绪,并在60年代重新回到欢迎移民的轨道上。如今特朗普面对的是一个更加全球化的世界和更多元化的社会,其部分举措引发的反弹不容低估。自由派精英、大企业和左翼人士坚守“美国精神”,认为移民不仅让美国经济更具竞争力,还代表了美国在意识形态和价值观上的自信,不仅欢迎合法移民,对非法移民态度也较宽容。另外,数千万新移民与自己的母国有千丝万缕的联系,也多少会对特朗普的政策形成牵制。未来随着美国政党轮替,相关政策可能出现一定程度的反复。欧洲经济长期低迷,面临着在财政和军事上重塑一体化的任务,其与穆斯林世界地缘上相接,也很难像美国一样“关门大吉”,因此需要克服的挑战可能更大、更持久。
凭借着较富裕的生活水平和更安定的生活环境,西方对其他地区的移民,尤其是西亚北非的难民仍具有强大吸引力,美欧在吸纳外来人口上变得小气,无疑削弱其感召力和长期自诩的道德优势。如果西方认识到自己在中东犯下的历史性错误,标本兼治地推动稳定中东局势并促进当地经济发展,西方,尤其是欧洲面临的恐怖主义和穆斯林人口涌入的压力会逐步减轻。但如果问题长期得不到解决甚至更加恶化,西方民粹主义和极右势力的得势不仅会祸乱西方,还会波及世界。从这个意义上说,西方收紧移民和难民政策、清理门户、脱困疗伤不应被简单地理解为西方的自私和衰落,而是一次被动的、具有自我修复色彩的努力。
责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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