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军方智囊:南海形势濒临爆发临界点 准备"攻坚战"

2016-05-10 07:28:37   

二是强调坚持法理斗争强化主权主张。仲裁庭从设立之初就没有可信的管辖权基础,其做出的每一项裁决的法律权威性和公正性大打折扣。菲律宾提请仲裁事项表面看是海洋权益问题,实质是南海部分岛礁的领土主权问题,超出《公约》的调整范围,不涉及《公约》的解释或适用。我应充分利用历史证据、国际公理、法律原则等,深度剖析裁决本身的法律缺陷和漏洞,从程序正义、法律适用、证据选取、法理逻辑等方面,直接挑战仲裁裁决的公正性和权威性,以我方有理有力的法律逻辑攻击仲裁庭的无知和裁决的荒谬。

三是坚持“后岛礁建设”不动摇。通过提供国际公共服务产品,树立我负责任大国形象,如向国际社会提供南海官方海图、航路指南、岛礁助航设施等航海安全保障,打破对我破坏航行自由的污蔑,稳步加强对南沙岛礁及其附近海空域的持续有效管控。制定南沙岛礁相关海域的自然资源和海洋生态环境保护规划。可通过不同场合,正式对外明确我在南沙各礁扩建后主要对外承担的使命和任务:如反恐与维和基地、国际海上搜救基地、航海保障基地、海洋环境保护基地、国际旅游观光基地等。

四是坚定在争议岛礁显示维权意志。在美方宣布实施单独或多国的“南海巡航计划”时,我也可以针锋相对宣布我军“南海巡航计划”。但在行动上慎重处置,避免与美舰机发生冲突,保持中美关系斗而不破。应对菲律宾可能的侵权挑衅行动,重在做好反制准备。南海仲裁是因为南海岛礁争端引起的,如果仲裁结果出来对我不利,我应以两手对两手:一方面,加大岛礁战略支撑功能建设力度,尽快形成实际管控和震慑,保持对美菲等国的高压态势。另一方面,中国理直气壮地在相关岛礁进行建设,对菲新的侵权行为进行严厉惩治,坚决打掉其企图和幻想。

同时,应抓住美菲给我们提供的机会,加强南海岛礁军事部署,我们不谋求岛礁军事化,但也绝不会不设防,防御设施的多少完全取决于我们受到威胁的程度。加大我军在南海巡航和演习的力度,加强我在南海的存在与威慑。

五是坚决打赢舆论宣传战。保持战略定力,不为美菲等国舆论左右,对美菲舆论斗争的实践证明,当美菲操纵舆论事件时,我反应越迅速,发声越及时,后续的斗争行动就越主动,效果越好。要依靠网络主流媒体平台,及时发布于我有利的信息,有针对性地全方位反对仲裁结果,挤压美菲空间,政府和专家发声相结合。从不同侧面对我的主张进行正面宣示解释说明,确立我在南海的岛礁主权和海洋权益主张。加大对美国等西方民众以及东盟国家对南海主权属我的宣传力度,把对菲斗争从“点对点”扩大到“面对点”,目前已有包括俄罗斯、印度、老挝、巴基斯坦等在内的十多个国家表态,支持中国处理南海问题的立场和主张。要加大对东盟工作力度,防止东盟向美靠拢致使南海问题成为中国-东盟关系的重大障碍。要把握舆论斗争策略,灵活应对美菲等通过媒体实施的舆论攻击,坚决打好这场仲裁舆论战。(作者是国防大学战略教研部教授)

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