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资金分歧明显 后市仍不悲观

2017-10-12 07:32:54   

此外,三季度北向资金加速流入的现象也尤为值得注意。招商证券表示,三季度北上资金流入规模持续扩大,净流入702.5亿元,较二季度的498.8亿元增加203.7亿元,环比增长40.84%。可见6月下旬A股成功入摩吸引了海外资金加快进入A股市场提前布局,同时也反映出北上资金看好A股市场。虽然国庆节前最后一周北上资金小幅净流出,但是并不影响境外资金对股市的预期,且节后首个交易日,北上资金继续大幅净流入。沪股通净流入46.75亿元,深股通净流入28.89亿元,合计净流入75.64亿元。而北上资金的流入无疑提升了A股市场的流动性,这也有助于后市A股市场的回暖。

分析人士指出,从近期两市的分化走势以及节后出现回升的两市成交量来看,两市持续震荡后变盘的动力正在增强。此外,资金方面越来越多的积极信号的出现也正在为大盘累积向上动力,因此对待后市也仍不必悲观。

资金仍将偏“暖”

总的来看,节后市场的震荡与资金对后市判断上出现的分歧息息相关。但从两融余额、两市成交量回升以及北向资金加速净流入等现象来看,后市的积极因素正在增加。虽然前期热点在“一日游”的行情中逐一“熄火”。但随着增量资金入场信号的明确,市场韧性正在增强,后市热点也料将很快“浮出水面”。

从资金在行业方面的流入(出)情况上看,昨日,28个申万一级行业中,食品饮料、家用电器、银行、农林牧渔和纺织服装5个申万一级行业实现了资金净流入,流入金额分别为8.70亿元、7.25亿元、3.02亿元、1.40亿元和0.70亿元。其余23个板块均不同程度地呈现出资金净流出态势。从盘面实际交易的情况来看,昨日获得资金流入的板块均有不错表现。一方面,反映了当前令人“应接不暇”的热点切换背后仍是资金“挪腾”的结果。另一方面,也反映出当前热点间涨势缺乏持续性的背后多因当前资金仍对后市缺乏一致共识所致。东北证券认为,站在当前时点观察后市资金仍是关键。该机构指出,一方面,当前市场大体上仍处于存量资金环境腾挪上行的范畴。另一方面,节后市场的支撑因素也在增加,下行调整空间料将有所约束。

光大证券表示,9月市场资金面供需格局偏“暖”。一方面,个人和机构投资者新增资金较为平稳,两融余额继续回升,陆股通等外资流入趋势依然较强。另一方面,虽然产业资本转为净减持,但股权融资规模大幅收缩。叠加近期全球经济数据向好,国内PMI超预期回升,央行“远期”定向降准,三季报盈利增速仍维持较高水平,政策预期支撑仍在。整体来看,10月市场环境仍较温和,风险偏好料仍有支撑。因此,该机构认为10月市场资金供需仍有望维持偏“暖”格局。

针对后市,中金公司指出,三季度不同风格的指数出现持续的反弹,以大盘股为代表的上证50和沪深300指数进一步创出2016年以来的新高,而创业板指数在出现较大幅度的下跌后也迎来较大幅度反弹。往未来看,中金公司认为在基本面和估值提升的驱动下,股指仍有上行空间,其中业绩增长将成为驱动未来股指上行的关键因素。就基本面数据来看,上半年宏观经济指标以及上市公司中期业绩增长角度都显示中国经济和公司景气出现了大幅的恢复,从信贷增长、土地成交面积等领先指标来看,下半年中国经济仍然有望保持稳健的增长。而从估值角度看,沪深300以及中证800指数的估值水平处于历史均值水平,考虑到当前相对较低的无风险收益率,未来估值水平仍有提升空间。具体配置上看,该机构建议积极参与A股的投资机会,标的选择上淡化风格,从业绩出发进行布局。

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