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密集减持只是“假象” 产业资本分歧显现

2017-10-12 07:27:54   

据西南证券统计数据显示,8月份根据上市公司公告计算的限售股解禁后减持市值为38.85亿元,涉及上市公司157家,共计26555.40万股。9月份公告的限售股解禁后的减持情况,显示规模环比剧增。9月份限售股解禁后合计减持市值为172.03亿元(二级市场减持51.00亿元,大宗交易减持121.03亿元),比8月份增加133.18亿元,为其4倍多,为年内最高水平。

数据显示,原限售股股东通过二级市场直接减持和大宗交易进行减持的283家上市公司中,被减持市值最大的前五家上市公司分别为海康威视、分众传媒、立讯精密、索菲亚、国泰君安,减持市值均在3亿元以上。公告被减持股数占总股本比例最高的前五家上市公司分别为百利科技、天瑞仪器、利尔化学、好利来、光洋股份,比例均在2%以上。

不过,值得注意的是,8月份上市公司股份获得增持市值共计66.21亿元,涉及上市公司 165家,共计48923.06万股。9月份上市公司股东增持市值共计153.72 亿元(二级市场增持 116.61亿元,大宗交易增持37.12 亿元),比8月份增加87.51亿元,为其2倍多,为年内第二高。

被增持的210家上市公司中,被增持市值最大的前五家上市公司康得新、索菲亚、尤夫股份、爱建集团、利亚德,增持市值均在4亿元以上。公告被增持股数占总股本比例最高的前五家上市公司分别为狮头股份、尤夫股份、瑞丰光电、建研集团、悦达投资,比例均在4%以上。

“产业资本增减持,对股价来说并不一定有直接影响,增持未必会涨,减持未必会跌,股价会考虑综合因素,对个股而言没有必然的正相关联系。”张刚说。

何处藏金何处埋雷

“对于大股东大幅减持甚至清仓式减持的股票,股价短期内可能受到负面影响,但关键还是看上市公司本身的质量,如果是好的公司,自然受影响不大,如果大股东减持是因为公司已出现向坏的拐点,股价自然会受到影响,这要区别对待。总体上看,单凭这几天A股十几家甚至几十家公司出现股东减持的情形,不大可能对A股市场有显著影响。”符海问表示。

中泰证券分析师唐军曾对股票获得高管增减持之后的走势进行了统计,结果显示,按事件发生后超额收益的盈亏个数比和累计涨跌幅来看,高管增持后盈亏比提升,长期超额收益中枢上移,累计涨跌幅为正;而高管减持后盈亏比下降,超额收益中枢明显下沉,累计涨跌幅为负。

据其统计显示,增持行为更多在熊市中发生,而减持行为更多在牛市背景下进行;剔除 2015年政策影响,增/减持多发生在1月、12月以及年中;增持发生较多的行业有电气机械与专业设备、化学、医药等;减持多的行业则是计算机、软件和专用设备制造业等。

哪类增持和减持值得关注呢?唐军表示,从力度上看,增持力度越大,长期表现越好。从次数上看,公司历史鲜有减持,突然发生高管减持尤其需要警惕;公司历史频繁减持,高管再去减持的利空程度比较有限;公司历史频繁增持,高管再去增持的利好程度比较有限。从时点上看,年尾和年初的增减持往往透露隐藏信息,公告披露之前的“敏感期”对股价有明显影响。

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