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“三板斧”失效 债市超额收益何处觅

2017-09-30 07:32:53   

中国证券报:如果市场弹性依然不强,超额收益来自哪里?

赵巍华:传统上,波段交易、杠杆套利和下沉信用是债券投资者博取超额收益的“三板斧”。如果资金成本偏高且缺乏明显的利率下行空间,那么这三种方式的空间都有限。但无论何种期限和评级的品种,其市场收益率的绝对水平明显好于去年,所以基础性配置的收益压力和风险均小于去年。未来环境可能仍对杠杆套利和信用下沉不友好,但利率风险相对有限,波段交易空间增大。

今年以来,股票二级市场整体形势较好,比较利好转债和可交换债这类混合资本工具。这类品种也成为今年以来债券投资者获得超额收益的重要方式。转债和可交换债未来有较大的潜在发行规模和数量,这也给债券投资者提供了一些筛选和参与机会。

孙超:倘若市场弹性依旧不强,超额收益可能来自以下三方面:其一,套利,譬如国债期货的IRR套利机会;其二,转债,可选择中高平价中有业绩支撑的标的,为组合增添一些股性,新规后,转债打新成本显著降低,助力机构获得更好的增强收益,同时亦可结合新券上市的节奏配置细分行业龙头新券,优化配置结构;其三,精选盈利改善的信用债个券,供给侧改革背景下,部分行业与发行人盈利状况好转,可自上而下地选择景气度改善的行业,譬如造纸、食品饮料等行业,以及自下而上精选盈利状况明显改善的个券。

覃汉:可转债发行提速,一级信用申购虽然中签率降低但只要不破面仍有一定参与价值,对于正股强势的可以考虑参与抢权配售。权益市场调整后仍有上涨空间,对于估值合理的转债也是一大利好,二级转债交易与配置机会均存在。

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