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8月工业企业利润增长再提速

2017-09-28 07:07:51   

专家表示,从已发布的数据可以看出,目前工业经济一些指标呈现出积极的变化。

何平认为,由于供给侧结构性改革措施持续发力,企业多项效益指标表现良好。首先是降成本成效明显加大。8月,工业企业每百元主营业务收入中的成本为85.44元,同比减少0.64元,比7月多减0.51元。除了每百元主营业务收入中的成本同比明显下降外,工业企业每百元主营业务收入中的费用为7.3元,也下降0.02元。综合考虑成本和费用,8月,规模以上工业企业每百元主营业务收入中的成本费用为92.74元,同比下降0.66元,比7月多降0.37元。

此外,企业杠杆率也出现明显降低。8月末,规模以上工业企业资产负债率为55.7%,同比降低0.7个百分点,比7月降低0.1个百分点。其中,国有控股企业资产负债率为61%,同比降低0.6个百分点,比7月降低0.1个百分点。

此前公布的工业增加值数据显示,8月高技术产业、装备制造业增加值同比分别增长12.9%和11.6%,增速分别高于规模以上工业6.9个和5.6个百分点,较7月分别加快0.8个和0.9个百分点。中国银行国际金融研究所研究员梁婧表示,产业结构持续改善,新动能成长壮大,是制造业稳中有升的重要基础。值得一提的是,8月耗能制造业生产出现回落,虽传统动能有所回落,但新动能不断成长与积累,使得制造业增速反而有所回升。

国家统计局新闻发言人刘爱华表示,高耗能制造业增长的回落,体现各地加大了对新发展理念的贯彻和落实力度,体现了创新和绿色发展的理念。这不但对短期增长带来质量提升,也增强了中长期经济增长的可持续性。综合来看,目前工业转型升级步伐正在加快,能够推动中国经济运行得更稳。

承压 下半年工业经济增长仍有压力

多位专家表示,下半年工业经济运行压力可能会增大。梁婧表示,目前来看,工业整体开始进入去库存的阶段,产成品库存在今年4月达到10.4%的高点后逐步回落到7月的8%。从历史经验看,工业产成品周期一般为三年左右,去库存阶段较短的为一年左右,预计未来一段时间去库存仍将延续,这在一定程度上影响未来生产的增长。

梁婧认为,未来工业企业盈利增速或有所放缓。去产能和环保高压共同作用,将使得生产资料等工业品价格保持高位,但考虑到高基数、房地产调控政策、融资环境趋紧等影响,未来需求面将弱于上半年。如果部分工业品价格涨幅过快,政策也会相应调整。预计上游工业行业盈利增速将继续回落。上游产品价格保持高位,会逐步传导至中下游企业,可能在一定程度上压缩利润空间。不过,总的来说今年企业盈利状况要显著好于去年。

对于目前在工业经济中起到决定性影响作用的价格走势,连平表示,PPI反弹可能是短期现象,未来涨幅仍会收窄。PPI走势受大宗商品价格影响较大,未来大宗商品价格难以大幅上升,不会进一步推升PPI。需求对工业产品价格拉动作用难以显著增强,受翘尾因素走弱影响,下半年PPI同比涨幅将低于上半年。

任泽平也认为,考虑到基数效应,PPI同比增速预计后期会走低,年末PPI同比增速可能回落至3.5%左右,但仍将大幅高于此前市场预期。

对于工业企业中长期的盈利,招商证券宏观研究团队27日发布报告称,当前市场已开始再度争论工业盈利改善的可持续性,看空方认为,基建投资与民间投资走弱、房地产投资滞后回落等将造成一定影响。但需要注意的是,当前分配格局正在转向有利于企业的方向,而需求结构正从投资为主转向消费与净出口为主,且外需回升与消费升级具有中长期逻辑。综合作用之下,使得工业盈利改善逐渐脱离经济周期波动,工业企业利润中长期有望进入中高速增长的稳定状态。

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