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滴滴程维:三十年后 市内交通将交给无人驾驶的飞行器

2017-09-27 11:32:53   

其次,王者荣耀背后的运营体系沉淀了腾讯多年经验,几乎是目前的极致水平(包括非游戏平台)。包括了等级、组队、商业化、任务等等子系统。抽象出来看设计逻辑都很完备,数据驱动很科学。值得借鉴。

另外,腾讯强大的渠道能力也是关键要素。王者荣耀是一个现象级的产品,肯定是天时地利人和都占了,才能这么成功。

观察者网:您刚才说自己是80年代小镇走出来的,我跟您是同龄人,也在县城读中学,到一线城市读大学。现在我回望过去的30年,觉得中国社会的变化天翻地覆,甚至超越了我那时读过的科幻小说。

现在滴滴汇集了来自全国的用户数据,昨晚我在展示室也看到了实时显示的北京交通热力图,这些数据最终都会进入滴滴研究院。有时候你们的研究院会发布一些数据,比如说从交通大数据角度看各个城市的商圈,我觉得很有意思。您认为滴滴研究院的哪些数据最能反映时代的高速进步?如果全部的数据给到10年、20年前的您自己来看,哪些数据最能颠覆(当时)您的世界观?

程维:我们每天处理200T数据,每匹配一个订单,都要进行超过576亿次运算,做天量路径规划。这个数据本身就是最惊人的东西。

我们的梦想是让出行更美好。梦想的第一步是构建一站式出行平台,连接所有交通工具。平台背后的核心是一个基于交通数据的人工智能大脑,我们叫它“滴滴大脑”。它在实时地学习这个城市里面每一个人出行的规律,实时了解交通工具和道路情况,从而整体地帮助全社会优化交通效率,也尽可能满足个人体验。

比如说整个(北京)回龙观住了几十万人,可能每天早上10%是去中关村上班,10%是去国贸的,80%人集中要去几个大商业区。每个方向都有几万人,两小时内都要出发。这些交通需求都可以通过学习找出规律。现在大家往往是自己选择交通工具——包括自驾,对实时情况和全局并不了解,效率低、时间不可控、还容易挤在一起谁也走不了。 “滴滴大脑”通过深度学习,目标是未来给全社会做出最优安排,比如说统筹推荐公交、拼车、叫车、自行车等服务,尽量错峰运行,尽量拼车共享出行,尽量让司机错开拥堵路段。只要能提高20%的效率,这就是了不得的效率提升。

人、车、路,三者之间在特定时间段的供需差距很大,这是交通问题的根源,智能和共享在一定程度上会化解这个矛盾。但是,解决人和车的供需问题,对实时性要求很高,对运算速度和能力挑战很大,每过2秒,车和路况都会变化,必须实时收集数据并演算。其次要考虑全局最优匹配,不仅是这个时间切片的最优,还要考虑这轮匹配对未来30分钟车辆分布的影响,还要考虑司机的服务和安全——你应该知道滴滴在给司机的服务打分,但可能不知道我们还要实时监测每辆车的安全分,监控急刹车拐弯疲劳驾驶等行为,目标是降低事故率。今年滴滴平台控制的车辆事故率会比线下出租车降低40%。

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