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新花成本或为国内棉价年度高点

2017-09-27 10:02:53   

籽棉抢收行情和“金九银十”旺季将助推棉价反弹,但在国内外棉价振荡偏空的大背景下,由这股力量推动的反弹高点极有可能是2017/2018年度国内棉价高点。参照历史规律,籽棉价格高点或在10月中旬形成,这也是郑棉价格下跌开启的时间窗口。

棉纱跟随棉价振荡偏空

棉纱价格与棉花价格长期高度相关,在纺纱成本构成中,加工费刚性,变化不大;棉花约占纺纱成本的70%,是棉纱价格变动的核心因素。纵观历史,棉纱基本没有脱离棉花独立发动行情的先例,主要跟随棉价波动,表现为纺纱利润的多寡。目前棉纱现货指数为23400元/吨,生产成本约23070元/吨,纺纱利润约330元/吨,基本符合旺季特征。2017年因进口纱利润长期倒挂,导致1—8月进口量同比减少2.5%。但随着内外棉价差扩大,进口纱利润又恢复到231元/吨,后市进口纱数量恐增加,从而施压纱价。预计2018年3月底之前,棉纱大势振荡偏空,节奏上跟随棉价波动。

综上所述,新年度棉花增产压力加大,“累库存”预期形成并不断加强,引导棉价通过振荡下行的方式完成价值重估。由籽棉抢收和“金九银十“催生的反弹高点或为国内棉价年度高点,棉价下跌的时间窗口将在10月中旬打开。

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