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规模升至全球第二 5.86万亿货基双面之惑

2017-09-26 08:42:54   中国经济网

事实上,货基强大的吸金能力正引发一场银行“拯救存款”的运动。据记者了解,今年以来,不少商业银行越发重视余额理财,它们不断向基金公司伸出橄榄枝,携手推出余额理财品种,力图减少“存款外流”带来的损失。

透过现象看本质,货基拥有的优势是银行存款无法企及的。据统计,截至8月18日,225只货基过去一年的平均收益率为3.22%,126只货基过去三年的平均收益率为10.32%,中国人民银行的最新存款基准利率(2015年公布)为:活期0.35%,定期一年1.5%,定期三年2.75%。

济安金信副总经理、基金评价中心主任王群航向记者分析说,不论从哪个维度来看,货基都完胜银行存款。首先,短期来看,货基目前的收益率为活期的10倍多。其次,长期来看,货基的收益率已经数倍于定期存款。最后,结合货基的流动性来考虑,定期存款也无法与货基比肩。

推手:银行与个人资金

规模不断壮大的货基是否存在风险,要搞清楚这一问题,先得了解谁在买入。

年初以来,货基规模经历了先下滑再上升的过程,从年初的4.5万亿份降至3月底的4万亿份,规模缩水约5000亿份,到6月底货基规模再度反弹至5.29万亿份的历史高点,二季度增长1.29万亿份。

天风证券的最新研究结果显示,假设机构资金中银行资金是最重要的来源,因此,可以通过三个标准来识别银行类货基。一是今年新成立的基金,规模超过100亿份;二是在存量货基中,规模大于50亿份,且历史上机构占比长期高于95%的;三是在存量货基中,规模大于50亿份,历史上机构占比波动率大于10%的。天风证券认为,符合这些特点的资金属于银行资金的可能性较大。

筛选后的结果显示,这一轮货基规模扩张,银行资金大约贡献了6000亿至7000亿增量份额,是最重要的推动力。

当然,个人投资者的贡献也不小。刚披露结束的公募基金半年报显示,个人投资者持有份额占货基总规模的比重为54.87%。不仅如此,个人投资者持有份额从2016年末的1.66万亿增加至2017年上半年末的2.75万亿,期间增加1.09万亿份,增幅高达66%。同期,公募基金总份额也只增加了1.39万亿份。

可见,除了大量资金通过银行渠道流向货基市场外,个人投资者的资金也是货基规模增加的另一推手,这反映出大众对货基青睐有加,也对货基的安全性提出了更高的要求。

误区:货基是绝对安全的

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