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“双节”将至 防御心态渐浓

2017-09-26 07:32:55   中国经济网

行情依然不悲观

分析人士指出,一方面,上证综指突破3300点后,各方资金始终缺乏对上冲3400点的一致共识。另一方面,由于迟迟不见增量资金入场的信号,市场信心趋弱,大盘出现回调。但当前需求侧依然较为平稳,资产定价的基础未改,回调更多只是短期风险偏好的扰动,从而引起资产价格的波动。但基本面向好的趋势未改,又何惧扰动。

总体来看,经过连续3个交易日回调,悲观的市场情绪升温明显。从上周以来,成交量的连续下降也显示出当前的交易情绪较为低落,但两市下跌无量,也说明资金并未出现明显的恐慌情绪。短期由于“双节”将至,做好必要的防御固然重要,但中长期看A股的走势并不悲观。

从当前全球市场的表现来看,股市处于历史新高。邓普顿股票主管兼新兴市场团队首席投资官Dover认为,“过去几年来,美国市场的表现好得不得了,因此必须要有些平衡。相对而言,新兴市场未来三至五年的表现可能超越美国”。而根据彭博(Bloomberg)汇整的数据,上周交易员已连续第四周买入发展中国家的交易所交易基金(ETF),其中资金流入最多的是巴西、中国内地、中国香港。部分全球大型投资人认为,在未来数月甚至数年,发展中国家的权益类资产仍可持续看涨。

针对当前市场,中信证券首席市场策略师商景超表示,“心在远方,路在脚下”。当前市场受到流动性因素的扰动,面临一定的回调压力。但心在远方,路在脚下。四季度是明年趋势性行情的酝酿期,而本周是节后趋势性机会的酝酿期。当前虽然有所扰动,但供给侧改革、国企改革的推进、去杠杆风险的释放和行业格局的优化将会创造更多的投资机会。因此四季度A股整体中性偏乐观,建议投资者可重点关注金融业龙头、消费升级和产业升级背景下的行业龙头,以及异彩纷呈的主题性投资机会。

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