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央广《王冠红人馆》财经报告:弱化英国脱欧,欧盟如何扬起风帆?
去年欧盟的确感到了前所未有危机。一方面整个欧洲面临着右翼势力的全面的回潮,从荷兰到比利时还有悬而未决的法国大选,欧盟主要的成员国都充斥着分裂欧盟的声音。另一方面,英国脱欧对整个欧盟的震动巨大,这一定程度上鼓舞了其他成员国中的右翼势力。此外,美国和欧盟也出现了裂痕,这对欧盟来说是巨大打击,前景黯淡。
从"生死存亡的危机"到"顺风起航",容克态度的转变是欧盟经济、政治和国际局势等多方面的利好趋势下的反应。
容克在发表"盟情咨文"时说,欧盟经济现在处于复苏的第五个年头,每个成员国都实现了经济增长。特别是在过去两年,欧盟经济增长率超过了美国。目前欧盟整体的经济增长率高于2%,欧元区为2.2%。失业率创下9年来的最低点,截至目前,自容克上任后已创造了近800万个就业机会。据相关机构预计,欧元区今年失业率在9.4%的高位。
尤其是德国经济的突飞猛进。相关数据显示,2016年德国财政收支盈余高达237亿欧元,创1990年两德统一以来最高值。考虑到在当前全球货币政策已经应用到极致,欧洲央行采取量化宽松的背景下,德国财政反而连年盈余,且创下新高,未来财政政策的放松,可以帮助欧洲经济稳健增长。
欧盟经济恢复强劲增长,英国脱欧的热度逐渐冷却,法国右翼势力被击败,在年轻的法国总统与有望再度连任的威望甚高的德国总理积极讨论启动新一轮欧盟一体化的鼓舞下,容克这份乐观的富有一体化色彩的演讲可以说是充满自信的。
当然,在这个节骨眼上,欧盟主席容克强烈呼吁团结向前,也是在鼓舞欧盟的伙伴们要充满信心,这与30年代美国总统罗斯福上任时说"我们唯一值得恐惧的就是恐惧本身"很相似。欧盟在英国离开之后,若不更加团结,分崩离析之后没有人能够明哲保身。
三、前瞻--扩大权力强化欧元,容克有何计划?
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