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看多情绪水涨船高 多路增量资金抢滩A股

2017-09-22 07:17:04   中国经济网

元大研究部表示,外资二季度增持显示对市场预期较为乐观。目前多个方面的信息均表明海外资金正在积极入市。比如,从沪港通资金流向来看,绝大部分时间均是“北冷南热”的格局,但近一个月北向资金净流入343.28亿元,远超南向资金净流入的203.81亿元,形成“北热南冷”格局,可以看出港股通资金对内地市场的态度。

兴业证券表示,公募基金持股总规模远超北上资金,但2017年上半年新增持股市值却低于北上资金。截至2017年年中,公募基金持股市值达17187亿元,远高于北上资金持股市值3465亿元。然而,2017年上半年基金新增持股市值为1443亿元,低于北上资金上半年增持市值1620亿元。

据该机构分析,这主要得力于2016年年底深港通的开通,首先深港通相比沪港通刚开通时,外资对北上途径更加熟悉;其次是沪深股票在可以同时配置的条件下,更加利于外资对于A股市场配置的全面性,从而吸引新增资金;再者,今年年中A股加入MSCI最终实现也吸引了新增外资资金。

机构谨慎看多后市

深圳一位私募人士表示:“短期内存在较大赚钱效应,所以我们在以较大仓位进行运作,对长期行情虽然也保持乐观态度,但确实难以得出准确结论。目前我们的规模不是很大,船小好调头也是敢大仓位布局的原因。”

中原证券表示,进入9月以来,近两周板块和行业热点愈加散乱,无明显规律性。上周创业板和上证50两种风格迥异的指数跌幅较大,从申万风格指数上看,小盘绩优股连续两周受资金青睐,与前一周不同的是更多资金从炒高估值转为中估值的中价股。主要的增量资金来自于融资余额,更合逻辑的解读是风险偏好带来的增量杠杆资金入市。另外,今年以来港股通的日成交金额中枢有较明显提升。

广发证券表示,从量化模型上来看,A股趋势向上,技术上上证指数不存在顶背离,权重板块银行股连续调整半个月,存在企稳迹象,从而向上拉动指数,国庆节后市场回暖上涨的可能性很大。

博时基金万琼表示,今年以来,蓝筹风格、行业龙头持续得到资金的追捧,煤炭、有色金属、家电、食品饮料、银行保险等行业均有靓丽表现。万琼认为,本轮行情并未结束,A股指数的调整空间依然不大,仍然持续看多A股市场,短期内市场仍将缓慢震荡上行。行业方面,依然看好消费、周期、银行、保险等板块;个股方面,仍然持续看好大盘龙头股,或者低估值的次龙头。

针对近期行情,华润元大基金指出,从短期角度来看,权重板块在经过一轮上涨之后,目前估值层面已需要消化压力;中长期的角度来看,行情震荡上行的逻辑没有改变,继续对后市持偏乐观态度。

不过,在招商证券看来,10月之后,上市公司企业盈利增速高位回落,未来几个季度将延续下滑趋势;而当前流动性难以成为支撑市场的正面因素,解禁、减持压力逐步加大,估值水平居高不下,当前投资者需要降低对指数的上涨预期。

景顺长城基金股票投资总监余广表示,上半年A股市场表现结构分化明显,沪深300指数上涨10.78%,而创业板指下跌10.12%,绩优蓝筹股表现靓丽。下一阶段,虽然受到库存周期和房地产周期的拖累,宏观经济增长可能略有放缓,但整体经济企稳的态势并没有改变,特别是稳健的消费增长和较强的装备制造业投资对经济形成了较好支撑,再加上海外主要经济体复苏,进一步刺激出口积极增长,继续看好绩优蓝筹股。

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