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股指中期上行趋势不变

2017-09-20 09:37:09   中国经济网

在过去的一个多月时间里,创业板表现的确要优于上证50指数,并且创业板的估值已经下滑至历史较低水平。但是根据前文分析所示,盈利趋势才是市场风格最主要的核心变量。从最新公布的2017年中报来看,A股盈利增速较一季报整体下滑,并且板块和行业结构分化明显,创业板下滑幅度高于主板,主要是受到外延增长受阻影响。主板中的银行板块受益于供给侧改革影响,部分产能过剩企业重返盈利,银行资产质量得到改善,伴随着利率水平不断抬高,银行收入也在好转。从盈利趋势来看,由于创业板净利润增速已经连续五个季度下滑,在盈利回落趋势暂未扭转前,我们还不能把近期的市场定义为风格逆转,风格转换还需要时间等待。

图为各板块净利润同比增长率(%)

总体来看,技术面上股指连续三周横盘纠结的走势,反映出当前多空双方分歧较大,短期趋势不明朗。中期来看,基本面韧性犹存,政策难转向,股指振荡上行格局不变。考虑到风格转换仍需时间等待,建议趁回调逢低布局IH多单。

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