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房地产:资金“青睐” 机构分歧

2017-09-20 07:37:10   中国经济网

从昨日行业中个股的情况来看,根据数据,截至收盘行业中129只正常交易的房地产行业成分股中,共有104只个股实现上涨。其中,苏州高新、华远地产、中房地产、广宇集团、信达地产和金科股份6只个股涨停,包括上述6只个股,涨幅超5%的个股也有12只。截至收盘,在28个申万一级行业中以涨幅1.70%位居涨幅首位,这在昨日“跌多涨少”的盘面格局中,表现已属相当优秀。

分析人士表示,年初至今截至19日,房地产行业不仅没有上涨反而还有0.45%的下跌,以区间内涨幅比较,在28个申万一级行业中房地产行业仅位于22名,与驱动本轮行情的有色金属、建筑、钢铁等行业动辄30%、40%的涨幅形成鲜明对比。从一个侧面也说明了当前房地产行业虽已连续数日出现上扬,但相较而言当前行业估值仍不算贵。因此,在估值修复逻辑为主导的本轮行情中后期料仍有一定机会。

后市走向机构间仍存分歧

在近期市场的整体回调中,房地产行业的逆势上扬无疑是近期市场中的最大“看点”。虽然当前市场上对房地产行业整体企稳走好的乐观之声已开始升温。但由于资金情绪依然不稳,热点切换仍然较快,部分机构依然对行业后市持较为谨慎的态度。

中金公司表示,当前“金九月”过半,新房销售量仍维持底部运行。一方面,推盘规模虽较上上周低点有所回升,但同比仍录得10%以上跌幅。另一方面,土地市场供求均稳中有升,溢价率环比维稳。因此,该机构判断在基本面下行趋势下,后市房地产板块可能将持续承压。

中信建投证券也认为,从重点城市成交继续回落、信贷压力继续显现、二手房量价调整强化的背景来看,后市房地产板块的估值压力依然存在。

但国信证券却表示,其实行业越降温,对聚焦地产主业的优势企业股价就越有利。该机构指出,上周四,统计局公布1-8月房地产投资和销售数据虽均显示行业持续处于小周期降温阶段,但当日申万房地产指数大涨2.14%,涨幅在申万一级28个行业中排名第二,显著跑赢大盘。而15日,即8月数据公布日的后一天,房地产板块表现延续强劲趋势,SW房地产指数大涨1.72%,涨幅仍在申万一级28 个行业中排行首位,远远领先于大盘。这一情况,充分反映了行业降温下地产股的预期逐渐得到修正。

展望后市,国信证券乐观地指出,2017年以来聚焦地产主业的优势企业的股价表现虽然不错,既有绝对收益,也有相对收益。但该机构认为仍然只是预热行情。行业降温虽将持续,但越降温,其实对聚焦地产主业的优势企业的股价表现越有利,今年以来万科、保利、新城、阳光城、华夏幸福等股价的上涨,赚的只是“市场风险偏好下降的钱、市场集中度提升的钱及业绩增长的钱”,未来行业降温将由量变到质变,必将迎来新一轮复苏,届时有望迎来赚“估值钱”的更大级别行情。

分析人士认为,在机构对房地产行业仍存分歧的当下,短期来看,房地产行业的偏强态势或仍能得以延续。但由于资金情绪依然不稳,其中长期的持续性则仍有待进一步观察。

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