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“苹果魔咒”无碍机构热情 技术升级引领长线投资

2017-09-18 10:06:42   新华网

素以长线投资著称的QFII、社保、证金等机构,也是苹果概念股的追随者。歌尔股份半年报显示,截至二季度末,挪威中央银行和魁北克储蓄投资集团位居其十大流通股东名单之列,且两家QFII对该股均进行了大手增持。大族激光获得挪威中央银行加仓250万股。德意志银行股份有限公司二季度新进入信维通信的十大流通股东名单。富邦人寿保险股份有限公司在新进蓝思科技的同时,继续持有立讯精密股票。

大族激光二季度的十大流通股东名单上,同时出现了全国社保四零一组合、全国社保基金一零八组合、全国社保基金六零一组合,以及中央汇金资产管理公司。同时,欧菲光也被中央汇金和全国社保基金四一三组合持有。

再看被市场誉为“聪明资金”的北上资金。东方财富Choice数据显示,近3个月来,歌尔股份、大族激光、蓝思科技和信维通信登上深港通十大活跃成交股名单的次数分别达16次、15次、13次和5次。

行业成长逻辑依旧清晰

多家机构均认为,从中长期看,苹果手机产量会不断释放进而带来业绩红利,相关概念股的后期走势并不悲观。

广发证券分析师廖凌指出,参照以往经验,新品发布会后,苹果手机大概率迎来出货新高峰。这意味着,在新机销量提升的预期下,苹果产业链相关企业的盈利都有望提升。

海通证券研报认为,苹果产业链公司2017年PE普遍在30倍以下,而这些公司2018年业绩预计仍能维持30%以上的增速。短期看,苹果概念股依旧是当前市场上少有的高成长、低估值的优质资产。而放眼未来,该产业链中白马股有望通过切入新的供应链体系、拓展新的业务品类,持续突破业绩与市值瓶颈,其行业成长逻辑依旧清晰。

有基金经理表示,苹果概念早已不是主题炒作了,苹果产业链的主要公司均有扎实的业绩支撑,因而不存在所谓利好兑现。布局该产业链,是基于相关公司业绩持续快速增长的逻辑。

兴业证券在最新发布的研究报告中表示,长期来看,iPhoneX将拉开智能手机新一轮创新大周期,国产品牌手机将快速跟进以提升自身产品竞争力,手机零组件产业链有望受益于新一轮技术创新周期带动的产品单价提升和集中度提升。

一位基金公司投资总监认为,中长线来看,智能手机产业链仍处盈利能力上升的景气周期。特别是本次苹果发布会带来一系列新技术和新应用,包括人脸识别、无线充电等,都将引领行业未来的走向,而其使用的配件及材料国内都有相关上市公司,每次技术和材质革新都会有一批公司确定性受益。

上投摩根基金表示,目前智能手机已进入密集发布季。在苹果公司秋季发布会之前,小米发布旗舰机型MIX,三星的Note8也箭在弦上。此外,华为、ViVo、OPPO等也将给市场带来惊喜。

这些惊喜包括:全面屏、柔性OLED面板、双摄像头、3D摄像、无线充电、声学功能升级、双电芯、陶瓷等非金属机壳、隐藏式指纹识别。而惊喜带来的另一个“副产品”是,新发布的智能手机价格均有稳定上浮的趋势,例如新发布的最高配置IPhoneX就超过1000美元,比上一代旗舰产品贵了5%。

上投摩根基金认为,这些来自于外观设计、屏幕、耳机、人机交互、安全、便利性等各个方面的创新型功能升级,使消费者愿意多支付一些价格,而稳定上行的单机价格也为各类新技术的运用留足了成本空间。从产业链发展的角度看,优秀的创新功能会刺激消费者的购买意愿,自上而下的智能手机产业链由此也获得了更大的发展空间。

“龙头手机厂商带来的技术升级浪潮,有望惠及整个上下游产业链,从而创造出不少投资机会,未来将重点关注其中受益较多、业绩增长较快、估值相对合理的投资品种。”上投摩根基金表示。

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