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美豆丰收在即 豆油逢高做空

2017-09-15 13:26:44   中国经济网

国内大连盘油脂表现偏强,除了工业品的强劲拉动,基本面改善也为市场形成底部支撑,包装油的备货令终端消耗量加大。

据统计,8月国内主要工厂散油成交量为64.1万吨,较前一个月大幅增加,日均成交量也达到2.79万吨,油厂出库也随之加快,豆油库存也从前期的高位回落。截至9月11日,国内豆油商业库存总量为136.2万吨,较前一周下降0.6%,较上个月同期下降5.1%,但仍处于相对高位。未来几周油厂开机率将继续提升,9月下旬节前备货基本结束,随着节前备货旺季结束及美豆上市压力逐步显现,豆油面临回调的压力。

策略及风险控制

今年美豆丰产概率非常大,而9—10月美豆将面临集中上市压力,届时美豆或承压下跌,并见到收割低点,预计美豆有跌破900美分/蒲式耳的风险。9月环保检查基本结束,因环保检查停机的油厂及短暂停机的油厂将陆续恢复开机,9月中旬开始油厂开机率将重新回升,豆油库存压力或将重新加大。目前价格处于高位的豆油面临较大的回调压力。

策略概述:Y1801逢高抛空,目标6100元/吨。风险控制:仓位不超过10%,止损6550元/吨。

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