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基本面内部逻辑失衡 债券收益率破局动能不足

2017-09-15 07:31:53   中国经济网

尽管经济基本面存在以上两个矛盾,却并不妨碍经济增长的成果:1至8月规模以上工业增加值累计同比增长6.7%,仅仅比1至7月回落0.1个百分点,虽然8月份单月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%,追平2015年12月以来的新低,但是8月环比增速则是回升至0.46%。鉴于一季度以来工业增加值同比增速存在季月“翘尾”效应,不排除8月份增速回落之后9月份增速意外回升的情况。从经济增长的最终结果来看,8月份经济增速并不如固定资产投资所显现的那样不堪,甚至三季度经济增长或许依然徘徊于连续8个季度的震荡区间。结合PPI和CPI之间的传导断裂、融资和投资之间的错位,经济基本面出现了一般价格水平、代表经济需求的融资、代表经济供给的投资三者之间非协同变动的局面,而这也是股票、商品、债券、汇率等不同种类资产的投资者之间预期分化的根源。

经济基本面方面存在的非协同且近期不能调和的矛盾早已经体现了在利率走势方面:7月以来不同期限债券收益率维持震荡局面的同时,中期票据和国债收益率之差度量的信用利差正在显著收窄,长期以来债券收益率和信用利差同向波动的规律被打破。不仅如此,同业存单发行利率和长端债券收益率之间的同向波动规律也被打破。当前利率走势之间的背离不仅仅是货币信用层面供需冲击的反映,更是经济基本面预期的反映:中期票据、同业存单等融资工具信用利差回落显示,无论是金融机构还是非金融机构,其负债端的融资压力已经开始缓解,融资成本在缓慢下降,这与货币信贷需求维持旺盛的局面相一致,但是债券收益率维持震荡则又说明投资收益率不上不下的尴尬阻碍了投资支出和资本形成,金融机构和非金融机构普遍面临投资回报率不高的窘境,因此出现了融资和投资之间错位的现象,并抑制了有效需求对CPI的拉动作用。

综上所述,经济基本面内部存在的矛盾短期内不可调和,非协同效应或许还将持续至四季度,短期内依然难以看到债券收益率完全突破震荡区间的动能,但是经济基本面矛盾在中期趋向于弥合的预期或继续驱动交易性需求积极介入,从而带来债券收益率波段性下行的行情。展望后市,10年期债券收益率下破3.60%的动能仍然有待积蓄,真正破局有待10月份的信号。

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