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人民币汇率唱响双向波动主基调

2017-09-14 07:17:23   中国经济网

国家外汇管理局副局长陆磊13日在“人民币和外汇市场论坛”发言时表示,人民币汇率会更具弹性,完善以市场供求为基础的人民币汇率形成机制这个方向不会改变。外汇管理部门将进一步坚持优化以“收盘汇率+一篮子货币汇率变化”为特征的人民币对美元汇率中间价形成机制,同时引导实体经济更多使用包括人民币在内的相关货币,进行贸易投资和结算。

“最近央行将外汇风险准备金征收比例降为零的举措,其出发点也是保持汇率的双向波动,货币当局管理的目标是汇率的均衡合理,而不是单边的升值或贬值。”温彬对记者表示,中长期来看,随着人民币汇率形成机制的进一步完善,人民币会在一个均衡合理的水平上保持双向波动。

陆磊还表示,应该鼓励更多中资主体走向国际市场,以及吸引更多外资主体进入中国市场,以改变我国“散户+羊群”的市场行为特征。他也再次强调,“打开的窗户不会再关上”,市场的开放会是一个基本方向。

业内专家表示,此前人民币的连续走强,表明市场参与者正从过度的贬值恐慌中解脱出来,但是目前结售汇逆差的格局尚未改变,也证明市场参与者尚未对均衡水平附近的双向波动建立起足够的信心。从目前的情况来看,随着市场参与者逐步成熟和对波动的适应度提高,人民币一时的贬值不至于再次引发恐慌性的购汇,但是监管部门仍不可掉以轻心,培育汇率双向波动预期应是一个长期的目标。

还有业内人士提醒,随着我国汇率市场化改革不断推进,汇率双向波动进一步加剧,市场的不确定性会越来越大,投资者不要盲目跟风炒汇。韩会师表示,对企业而言,最稳妥的结售汇策略是在准确匡算自身成本收益底线的基础上,设定某个具体的结售汇触发价位,或触发区间,一旦市场价格满足条件,无需刻意追求高收益,先满足自身基本要求,确保企业的持续稳健运营。这种策略可以将企业高管层的精力和时间从汇率赌博中解脱出来,专注于技术创新、市场拓展和内部管理水平的提升。

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