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券商策略周报:做多逻辑强化 市场稳步前行

2017-09-12 09:32:25   新华网

配置方面建议以“周期+金融”为主,具体行业有焦煤、钢铁、电解铝、化工、券商、保险、银行等。主题投资方面,建议关注混改(煤电、造船等)、房屋租赁、雄安新区、海南板块、新能源汽车产业链、OLED、环保以及人工智能概念等。

平安证券

  有些预期已在悄然形成

上周人民币兑美元汇率连续升值突破6.49,年初以来人民币兑美元汇率已经升值6.63%,但力度仍然弱于欧元兑美元14.44%、日元兑美元7.84%的升值幅度。9月8日央行宣布将境内金融机构代客远期售汇业务所需提取的外汇风险准备金率调整为0,释放出维稳汇率信号。人民币汇率预期变化有助于提升人民币资产的全球配置价值,伴随着中国资本市场开放进程的进一步推进,外资增配人民币资产趋势在数据上可以得到印证。

8月CPI同比增长1.8%(环比0.4%),PPI同比增长6.3%(环比0.9%),尤其是PPI环比连续两月明显加速上升,显示国内工业品价格在各种因素干扰下继续维持强势。而出口同比则在8月回落至5.5%,人民币汇率走强对此有一定的影响。我们认为宏观经济在数量上的表现将不及价格上的表现,供给侧变化(如环保)仍将作为显著的影响因素在价格上发挥较为明显的效应,同时价格上升压力向下传导的可能性正在日益受到市场关注。

我们认为市场预期会更多关注支持新兴产业政策方面。新兴产业和高端制造仍是国家产业政策的主要方向,新能源汽车、互联网、人工智能、生物基因等是未来我国参与全球竞争的主要领域。预期变化对于下一阶段的市场结构和风格影响较大,我们认为成长板块的做多机会也会随之显著增加,继续推荐新能源汽车产业链和人工智能主题。

国元证券

  注重安全 寻找补涨机会

上周市场分化严重,热点分散迹象加剧。立足中长期视角,目前各主要行业的轮动主要有几大特征:一是从消费结构变化来看,随着非基础性需求增加、城乡间消费差距缩小,家电类以及与地产相关的下游行业、白酒等食品饮料行业今年以来均有不俗表现。二是从市场情绪避险角度来看,具有低估值、高分红、大市值等避险价值的银行、保险个股,在机构抱团效应催化下前期演绎快速上升的阶段性行情。三是从人民币升值角度,随着人民币资产吸引力提升,海外资金流入我国资本市场的趋势得到加强。

但综合来看,以家电、白酒、金融类为代表的板块行情已至高位,未来可持续性有限,原因有几个方面:一,资金流入的不可持续性。二,企业盈利面因素无法对估值提升提供支持。三,包括汇率在内的市场共识高度一致,容易造成市场行情的超前体现。此外,6月以来持续上涨的大宗商品价格,以及对应的周期板块阶段性上涨,并非需求端的直接拉动,更多源自人民币汇率升值后的资金端推动。商品价格目前已处于历史较高位置,后期推动持续涨价的动力有限。

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