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超3000亿可转债待发 投资亦有新亮点

2017-09-11 08:57:39   中国经济网

再融资新规的实行,对上市公司融资进行了很大限制。以长江证券为例,公司在2016年7月完成非公开发行募资82.69亿元,募集资金在当年7月20日到账。这表明,长江证券目前已不具备启动新一轮定增的条件,借道可转债成为公司融资的新手段。

中信证券相关人士表示:“尽管定增受限后,部分企业也有配股的情况,但可转债可能是更容易发展起来的股权融资形式。从发行人层面来看,目前转债是监管层乐见的股权融资方式,即使不成功转股,也能实现低成本融资发行。从投资者层面来看,可转债是进可攻退可守的品种,可提供更多的选择空间。”

可转债估值看股市

一边是可转债发行加速,预案如潮涌,而另一边,股市走强,整个可转债市场估值持续走高,但当下市场上真正可供交易的可转债仅有19只,对投资者来说僧多粥少。

记者从业内人士处获悉,此前有不少瞄准可转债市场的资管产品,在高企的转债估值面前偃旗息鼓。而一些打着可转债旗号的资管产品,目前其实可转债配置的比例并不高。

某大型券商负责可转债产品的投资主办告诉记者:“此前股市出现好转,我们的产品主要采取卖出转债策略,但这部分动用的资金很少,我们产品近八成资金依然重点配置货币基金和逆回购,大约10%左右的资金才在股市中寻找结构性机会。”

那么现在,转债是否具有投资机会,估值高企是否会影响投资收益?

中金公司固收研究团队认为,经过6月、7月估值连续拉升之后,可转债市场对股市涨幅略有透支。不同以往,当前的潜在供给规模很大,可转债估值不可能无限度上涨,随着规模回升,可转债市场将重回“拍卖市场”的环境。

而天风证券固收研究团队孙彬彬则持有不同的观点:“目前可转债估值其实并不算贵,属于正常水平。近期逐渐加强的供给预期确实会在一定程度上压低估值,但在可转债未来供需两旺的预期下,估值难降。”

孙彬彬强调,这一判断是建立在权益市场维持现状且货币政策中性的基础上,两者如果出现变化,那么转债估值将面临不小的调整。“归根到底,权益市场的走势才是最重要的,不仅影响着平价,也影响着转债估值”。

机构看好转债打新

虽然可转债目前的估值是否偏高存在争议,但机构仍然看好其后市投资机会。

南方一位券商资管人士透露:“由于对转债市场大幅回暖的判断不足,我们的产品此前转债配置比例不高,期待后续市场供给放量,我们将在合适的时机推出新的可转债产品。”

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